20 hours Ago
1 / 8 Estimates for the April 2025 project indicate that automobile retail sales are expected to remain slow, with wholesales remaining under pressure, according to projections by Nomura and a CNBC-TV18 poll. A moderate growth has been projected across various segments, such as passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, and medium and heavy commercial vehicles. 2 / 8 Passenger vehicles: Wholesale dispatches in the passenger vehicle (PV) segment are expected to rise by 4% year-on-year, while retail sales are estimated to be up by just 2% YoY, as per Nomura.
Going ahead, demand is expected to improve, which will be evident only by the second half of 2025, while Nomura maintains a 5% YoY growth forecast for the PV industry in FY26. 3 / 8 CNBC-TV18's poll projects a mixed performance among key automakers. Maruti Suzuki could post a 4% YoY rise in April sales at 1.
75 lakh units, while Mahindra & Mahindra may report a robust 15% growth with 81,167 units sold. In contrast, Hyundai and Tata Motors could see declines of 4% and 3%, respectively, selling 61,000 and 75,038 units. Ashok Leyland's sales will likely remain flat.
4 / 8 Two-wheelers: The two-wheeler segment (2W) reflects a 2% increase in retail sales, though wholesales dipped sharply by 13% YoY, as per Nomura. The brokerage noted that demand is weak, and expects industry volumes to grow by 7% in fiscal 2026 and 6.5% in FY27.
5 / 8 Increased competition has led to price adjustments, with Bajaj Auto reportedly cutting prices of its Pulsar range. CNBC-TV18 poll data shows Bajaj Auto's April sales might be down 1% YoY at 3.85 lakh units, while Hero MotoCorp could record a 16% decline.
Meanwhile, TVS Motor and Royal Enfield may see growth of 12% and 6% respectively. 6 / 8 Medium & heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs): Nomura estimates wholesale volumes will decline by 3% YoY, though retail sales can rise 5% in this segment, reportedly due to improved capital expenditure and demand for tippers. The segment is expected to grow by approximately 5% annually over FY26 and FY27.
7 / 8 In the tractor segment, wholesales are expected to drop by 1% YoY. Nomura projects a steady 5% growth for FY26. CNBC-TV18 poll shows M&M's tractor sales rising 1% to 37,286 units, while Escorts could see a 7% decline.
8 / 8 Outlook cautious: Despite moderate retail growth, the auto industry continues to face challenges from subdued demand trends and inventory pressure. Analysts suggest a more definitive recovery to materialise in the latter half of 2025..
