1 day Ago By Trevor Filseth
Topic: SecurityBlog Brand: The BuzzRegion: AsiaTags: China, Javelin Missile, Missile Defense, Missiles, and TaiwanAs Taiwan Prepares for a Chinese Invasion, Missile Shortages Abound April 30, 2025By: Brandon J. WeichertShareShare this link on FacebookShare this page on X (Twitter)Share this link on LinkedInEmail a link to this pageTaiwan is right to seek Javelin missile systems. But they must be aware they will not have enough of them to effectively roll back a Chinese invasion force.
Taiwan plans to repel a potential Chinese invasion of their embattled island democracy with Javelin missiles. Recent video posted online displays Taiwanese forces practicing how to destroy hostile targets, such as ships that get close to Taiwanese shores, with Javelins. The decision to employ teams of Taiwanese troops to fire Javelins from protected positions along the coastline at Chinese ships that would dare move too close to Taiwan’s shores in a time of war was clearly inspired by the ongoing Ukraine War—and Ukraine’s use of the missiles against invading Russian forces, with great effectiveness.
There’s just one problem. Where Will Taiwan Get Its Missiles From, Exactly?The Javelins are produced by the United States and shipped to those allies in need of them, as Taiwan would be in a time of war with China. The questionable state of America’s defense industrial base suggests that the country would be hard-pressed to deliver missiles to Taiwan in large enough quantities to swing the outcome on the battlefield.
Indeed, after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Americans became keenly aware of just how low their Javelin stocks had gotten. In the summer of 2022, former President Joe Biden authorized a massive expansion of America’s stocks of Javelins, increasing the number of Javelins produced by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies from 2,100 to 4,000 by 2025. All this sounded good at the time.
But three years later, the reality is somewhat bleaker. In September of last year, a meeting of the National Armaments Directors convened and concluded that they had only boosted production levels to around 200 per month—or 2,400 per year—for the entire United States.America’s defense contractors are now claiming that they will have production levels boosted to 3,960 per year by next year, and 4,000 per year the following year.
But that would be two years after the contractors first assured us they would have that number available.These numbers, by the way, were based almost entirely on the needs of the ongoing Ukraine War. Conventional wisdom suggests that that war will probably end by the time China’s invasion of Taiwan begins.
But if this turns out not to be the case, America’s Javelin production will be even more inadequate.A Chinese Blockade Could Cut Off Taipei’s Javelin SupplyShould China invade Taiwan or try to blockade the country anytime soon, there will be serious shortages of the Javelin yet again—especially if either the Ukraine War continues, or even if the current crisis with Iran in the Middle East worsens.Taiwan is right to seek these systems.
But they should be aware that these systems will not be in abundance at the level Taipei would require to effectively roll back a Chinese invasion force. A better approach, perhaps, would be the distribution of small arms to strategic points around the island, and to as many of Taiwan’s 24 million citizens as possible.Taiwan must be prepared to wage the mother of all insurgencies against any Chinese invasion.
They cannot rely on more advanced Western systems, considering that those systems are both lacking in numbers and might not be able to be delivered reliably during a likely Chinese blockade of the island.About the Author: Brandon J. WeichertBrandon J.
Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy.
His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.Image: Shutterstock / e-crow.
The post As Taiwan Prepares for a Chinese Invasion, Missile Shortages Abound appeared first on The National Interest..
