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By Cameron Drummond, Lexington Herald-LeaderLEXINGTON, Ky. — Keeneland’s top Kentucky Derby prep race is in a drought when it comes to producing winners of horse racing’s signature event.It has been more than 30 years since the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland — the showcase race during the Lexington track’s annual Spring Meet — has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
The last horse to accomplish the Blue Grass-Derby double was Strike the Gold in 1991. Thirty-two Blue Grass Stakes winners have tried and failed to win the Kentucky Derby since then.Now, Burnham Square will get a chance to rewrite the history books.
The Ian Wilkes trainee finished the prep season as the horse with the most qualifying points earned toward the Grade 1, $5 million Kentucky Derby, which will be run at 6:57 p.m. EDT Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
Most of those 130 qualifying points came as a result of Burnham Square’s victory by a nose over East Avenue in last month’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Burnham Square used a sweeping move at the far turn to go from last to first against a talented, but small, field of seven horses.This was only the fifth running of the Blue Grass to be decided by a nose since the race was first held at Keeneland in 1937.
“Just let him travel, let him cruise along,” Brian Hernandez Jr., Burnham Square’s jockey and the winner of last year’s Kentucky Oaks aboard Thorpedo Anna and Kentucky Derby aboard Mystik Dan, said after winning the Blue Grass.“That’s the nice thing about a horse like him.
For a 3-year-old to make such a long run like he did today and be able to run down Grade 1 winners like he did, he’s an exciting horse to move forward with.”Burnham Square’s journey to the 2025 Kentucky Derby also included a win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in February, as well as a fourth-place effort at the same track in March’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.Now as Burnham Square readies for the Kentucky Derby, plenty of history will be against him.
Not only has it been 34 years since the Blue Grass winner went on to win the Derby, but it’s also been 53 years since a horse from post position No. 9 — where Burnham Square will begin the race — has won the Run for the Roses.“We have to keep the foot on the gas — got to keep the foot down on the pedal — because we’ve got to get a little better again,” Wilkes, Burnham Square’s trainer, said after the Blue Grass.
“It’s going to be very deep waters, and we’ve got to get a lot better.”Can Burnham Square go on to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby?A son of Liam’s Map — a three-time stakes race winner — and Linda (a Scat Daddy mare), Burnham Square has won three of six career races. This includes a pair of contests at Gulfstream Park — a maiden special weight race last December and the Holy Bull Stakes — before his late-charging triumph in the Blue Grass.
“He looks like the type of horse where he’s coming into (the Kentucky Derby) in good form,” Hernandez said. “Right now with these 3-year-olds, that’s kind of what you want this time of year. You want a horse that’s on the upswing.
And he seems to be that way.”Burnham Square is the only gelding — a male horse that’s been castrated — in this year’s Derby field. The last gelding to win the Kentucky Derby was when Mine That Bird came through in the slop in 2009.
Only nine geldings have won the Run for the Roses all-time. On Saturday, Burnham Square will become the 120th gelding to compete in the Kentucky Derby.As the most recent gelding to win the Derby, Mine That Bird’s triumph in 2009 is best remembered for the signature rail trip given to him by legendary jockey Calvin Borel.
There’s no telling what kind of trip Burnham Square will receive from post position No. 9 on Saturday in Louisville, but what is known is that Burnham Square’s jockey knows his way to the Derby winner’s circle.Hernandez — a 39-year-old who, like Borel, is from Louisiana — completed a rare double last year by winning both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
In another turn of coincidence, Borel (in 2009 with Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird) was the last jockey to pull off the Oaks-Derby double before Hernandez.“What he did last year, that just showed his ability. He’s a really good rider and a really good horseman,” Wilkes, Burnham Square’s trainer, said of Hernandez.
Hernandez — who is now 1 for 5 in his Derby career — was making his first start aboard Burnham Square in the Blue Grass Stakes. In his three previous starts before the Blue Grass, Burnham Square was ridden by Edgard Zayas, who doesn’t have a Derby mount but will be aboard Early On in Friday’s Kentucky Oaks.Also in the Oaks, Hernandez will be riding Take Charge Milday for trainer Kenny McPeek (who teamed up with Hernandez for last year’s Oaks and Derby wins).
Wilkes, who is from Australia, has only saddled one previous Derby runner: McCraken finished eighth in 2017.“Twenty horses, you’ve got to break good, you’ve got to run into the dirt. There’s a lot of little variables about it,” Wilkes said.
“You can’t be wide both turns. You’ve got to save ground somewhere.”There will be some familiarity on Derby day for both Wilkes and Burnham Square’s ownership, though.
Burnham Square is a Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred, and Whitham also owned McCraken, Wilkes’ previous Derby runner.While he hasn’t conditioned many Kentucky Derby runners as a solo trainer, Wilkes is no stranger to the madness, and potential success, offered by the Derby.Wilkes was the exercise rider when Unbridled won the 1990 Kentucky Derby, and he was a training associate to Carl Nafzger when Street Sense won the 2007 Run for the Roses.
(The aforementioned Borel was aboard Street Sense for that Derby win.)“Unbridled was when I was young, I was galloping him and it was probably more of a blur,” Wilkes said. “.
.. Street Sense, (I) enjoyed it more, being there before, took it in.
”Something to watch with Burnham Square on Saturday will be his position within the 20-horse field as the stretch run takes shape. The closing move that Burnham Square made to run down East Avenue in the Blue Grass would be difficult to replicate in the Derby due to the field size.What is the history of Blue Grass Stakes runners in the Kentucky Derby?To get back to the statistical quirk at hand, it’s been a long time since a participant in the Blue Grass Stakes went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Strike the Gold in 1991 was both the last winner of the Blue Grass to go on and win the Derby and also the last runner from the Blue Grass to win the Run for the Roses.In total, 19 horses who have run in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland have gone on to win the Derby. Of these horses, 10 of them won both races.
The complete list of Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby winners?Shut Out (1942), Tomy Lee (1959), Chateaugay (1963), Northern Dancer (1964), Lucky Debonair (1965), Forward Pass (1968), Dust Commander (1970), Riva Ridge (1972), Spectacular Bid (1979) and Strike the Gold (1991).How much correlation, if any, can be drawn between a specific prep race and how the runners from it perform in the Derby?“I think we read too much into particular races producing Kentucky Derby winners,” Scott Hazelton, a horse racing host and reporter for FanDuel TV who also works in several broadcast capacities at Keeneland, told the Herald-Leader.“.
.. I don’t think that you can downplay a race just because they haven’t produced a winner in a little while.
”Hazelton brought up the valid point that plenty of good horses who have had strong Derby efforts have come through the Blue Grass Stakes since Strike the Gold’s double in 1991.Since then, four horses have won the Blue Grass Stakes and finished second in the Kentucky Derby: Prairie Bayou (1993), Menifee (1999), Good Magic (2018) and Sierra Leone (2024).Good Magic was outdueled in his Derby by Justify, who became only the 13th horse to win the Triple Crown.
Last year, Sierra Leone was part of a historic three-way photo finish in the Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone went on to be the 3-year-old champion after winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November at Del Mar.More than half of the field from this year’s Blue Grass Stakes is set to be in the starting gate for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Along with Burnham Square, the Derby field also includes Blue Grass runner-up East Avenue (post position No. 12), Blue Grass fifth-place runner Render Judgment (post position No. 15) and Blue Grass sixth-place finisher Owen Almighty (post position No.
20).Purely based on entrant size, this means there’s a 20% chance the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner will come from the Blue Grass Stakes.“You’ve got all sorts of styles in this race,” Hazelton said when assessing the Kentucky Derby field.
“There’s not a lot of speed horses in here, but you’ve got a lot of horses that’ll be coming from off the pace and then the sort of in-between runners. But, (Burnham Square and East Avenue) are two serious contenders. I wouldn’t sleep on either.
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