2 weeks Ago
As global uncertainties and trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, rate cut expectations in India are beginning to shape new opportunities in fixed income.In a conversation with ET Markets NRI Talk, Ashwin Patni, Head – WMS at Julius Baer India, shares why corporate bond funds are gaining renewed favour among investors.He explains how the evolving macro environment is prompting a shift in asset allocation strategies, especially for those seeking stability amid market turbulence.
Patni also delves into why staying the course and maintaining a balanced portfolio remains critical for NRIs and Indian HNIs alike in the current climate. Edited Excerpts –Q) Thanks for taking the time out. How might escalating trade tensions between major economies like the US and China affect the global investment landscape for NRIs?A) The intense market uncertainty and volatility from the initial shock of the tariff announcement has begun to settle down in the last few days as attention moves to negotiating trade deals with individual countries.
However, this promises to be a drawn-out process with lots of noise till a final outcome is reached.While the more structural aspects of any trade deal will take time to play out, the key risk right now is that of global economic slowdown in the face of this uncertainty as corporate decision making gets held up.Investors are best served in this environment by staying focused on their long-term objectives and asset allocation and avoid taking short term calls linked to the market noise.
Q) In the wake of a tariff war, should NRIs consider reallocating part of their portfolio from global equities to safer fixed-income instruments or gold?A) As mentioned above the initial shock effect of the tariff announcements on the market seems to have settled down. Accordingly taking a short-term market timing call at this juncture may be counterproductive.Having said that, the likelihood of a global slowdown at the margin has improved the chances of a deeper rate cut cycle in India and we have been bullish on playing that through corporate bond strategies.
Q) Could India benefit as a manufacturing alternative amid US-China trade tensions, and how can NRIs capitalize on this shift?A) India stands to be a long-term beneficiary from the likelihood of global players diversifying their supply chains. India is also relatively sheltered from the global tariff uncertainty on account of its largely domestically oriented economy.However, given how our capital markets are integrated with global flows, any global risk-off sentiment creates a reaction in the local markets as well.
Thanks to the correction in the last 6 months, Indian market valuations are now much more in line with their long-term averages - especially for large caps.Therefore, investors should be comfortable with making long term allocations to the Indian equities at this juncture - on a staggered basis to minimize any market timing risk.Q) What role do international investment opportunities play in the portfolios of Indian HNIs, and how are wealth managers facilitating access to these markets?A) Indian investors have a large home bias.
There are also limitations for Indian investors in terms of accessing global products. Accordingly, most Indian investor portfolios tend to be overwhelmingly allocated to Indian assets.Historically this has worked well for investors given the performance of the Indian markets.
Going forward allocation to global markets will be a function of market opportunities as well as the ability to access products. Thus, any shift to global assets will be quite slow and will only happen over time.Q) How is the increasing wealth in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities influencing your firm's client acquisition and service strategies?A) While in absolute size Tier 1 markets continue to dominate, Tier 2/3 cities have seen a lot of wealth generation and monetization events in the last few years.
We have been investing in expanding our network and reach and have seen good success in the same. Q) Are wealth managers recommending any specific asset classes or geographies as a hedge against trade-related global market turbulence?A) As mentioned earlier, at the margin we have become more constructive on a deeper rate cut cycle in India and corporate bond funds look quite attractive.Q) If someone plans to invest $10,000 in India – what should be the ideal asset allocation strategy for the next 3-5 years?A) There is no one size fits all asset allocation, but all investors should take a balanced approach that spreads their portfolio across key asset classes rather than letting any one asset class like equity dominate – regardless of how attractive it may appear.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times).
