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AUSTIN, Texas — The start of hurricane season is about a month away, and like many forecasts of the past several years, experts are predicting an overactive year. Here are some of the ways the forecast could impact Central Texas. Another above-average outlook The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does not release its official hurricane season forecast until late May, just ahead of the start of hurricane season on June 1.
Expert researchers at Colorado State University also release a hurricane season outlook. For 2025, they are predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. This is slightly above what we would expect in an average year.
In terms of activity, they are predicting numbers similar to what was counted last year. However, numbers don't give us a good picture of where or when tropical disturbances will form or make landfall. Different tropical setup for the 2025 season This year, similar to last year, we are not expecting either El Niño or La Niña in the equatorial Pacific.
This is a global weather pattern called ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) that has a big influence on hurricane season. Instead, we are in what scientists call "neutral" conditions. El Niño conditions tend to suppress tropical development, as more wind shear is present.
In La Nina, tropical development is known to be above-average, with less wind shear and more moist, unstable air present. Hurricane seasons under neutral conditions can be known to have above-average activity too. During a neutral ENSO hurricane season, scientists look to other factors that tend to influence tropical development.
For 2025, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will also play a role. Above-average SSTs In the spring ahead of the 2024 hurricane season, sea surface temperatures were warmer than they are currently. 2024 was a record-breaking year for sea surface temperatures, which helped fuel and strengthen hurricanes like Helene and Milton.
If sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and the Atlantic stay closer to normal this hurricane season, it could inhibit the potential for rapid growth and intensification of some tropical activity. Overall, each hurricane season is different, and each hurricane that develops within that season is also different. Another update on the hurricane season forecast will be posted when NOAA releases its outlook in a few weeks.
Here is a list of hurricane names for the 2025 season..
