2 weeks Ago
For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic’s sports betting section and have them added to your feed. This weekend, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Manchester City take a break from Premier League action and head to Wembley instead, where they’ll square off in the FA Cup semi-finals. Victory would grant a spot in this May’s final.
Advertisement Both games offer a clash of styles and, therefore, real tactical intrigue, meaning we can dig into the details and find some great value bets. Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Crystal Palace and Aston Villa meet for the fourth and final time this season. It’s fair to say this particular contest has not gone well for the latter.
Their first tussle came in the Carabao Cup in October, where Unai Emery fielded a reserve XI and watched it limp to a 2-1 defeat at home. They met again at Villa Park the following month, where Palace scored early, saved a Youri Tielemans penalty and squeezed a 2-2 draw over the line. Then, in February, the Eagles took their turn to host and took Villa apart 4-1 in a ruthless display of attacking efficiency.
Given this recent track record of results, it’s a little surprising to see the bookmakers so down on Palace’s chances of progressing to the final. They’re odds-off to qualify and a fairly lengthy 21/10 to win in 90 minutes. Presumably, Villa’s immense turnaround in form over the last six weeks is baked into the pricing – they have, after all, won 10 of their last 12 games and beaten some excellent sides along the way.
But for them to be priced so short against a team that has clearly caused them immense problems does raise an eyebrow. Crystal Palace pose a tactical conundrum to Villa, as they are happy to defend deeper, and then counterattack with immense speed and guile. Ismaïla Sarr’s pace has long caused the club problems – he has five goals and two assists in five appearances against them, a pattern that stretches back to his time at Watford – while Ebere Eze, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Daniel Muñoz are all superb in transition.
For a team like Villa, who like to control possession and territory, this is problematic, so it’s no wonder Palace have scored against them in each of the five games they’ve played against them under Oliver Glasner. Still, Villa can give as good as they get. On paper, they’re the better team, in better form, and they’ve been utterly prolific of late, scoring 29 goals in their last 12 games.
In Marcus Rashford, Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers, they have the cutting edge required for the big occasion. Advertisement Best bets: Both Teams To Score Yes is an attractive 3/4, while the over 2.5 market is priced nicely at evens.
For a more speculative bet, Sarr – the scourge of Villa – to score or assist is 21/10. Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Before the turn of the year, Manchester City were stuck in an awful rut. They won just once in 13 games, losing nine of them.
Sporting CP, Tottenham Hotspur and Feyenoord scored three or more against them, while Liverpool, Juventus and Spurs beat them to nil. That one win, though, came right in the middle of that run, and it came against Nottingham Forest. It was the one game City actually turned up in, and they triumphed 3-0 thanks to a convincing display.
It was a timely reminder of the quality they possess – even during the rough times. They met again in March and played out an unbelievably tight affair, which Callum Hudson-Odoi settled in Forest’s favour with an 83rd-minute strike. Clearly, that second game has mattered little to the bookmakers’ estimations of this tie, as City are heavy favourites to qualify and odds-off to win in 90 minutes.
That naturally paints Forest as the value pick; they’re a shade better than 2/1 to make the final, despite the fact they proved more than a match for Pep Guardiola’s troops when they met last month. Like with Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, the tactical context of this matchup feels fairly set in stone. Forest will happily soak up pressure and counter with speed, while City will look for possession and territorial dominance, setting a slow pace to the game.
This Citizens team is far from its usual dynamic, threatening self – especially with Erling Haaland sidelined through injury. As a result, City have resolved to win games through sheer grind. They tack together long sequences of play to prevent their opponents gaining momentum, which makes it difficult for them to press without wasting energy.
But Forest will be more comfortable in that gamestate than most. They will happily wait for their chance to counter, defend their box manfully and conserve energy knowing that this game could eclipse 120 minutes. This, combined with the gravity of the occasion, could lead to a cagey affair.
Best bets : Under 2.5 goals at 10/11, or Both Teams To Score No at 21/20 are 90-minute bets that back a cagey afternoon without necessarily picking a winner. The best value goalscorer bet might be Anthony Elanga at 9/2, who is capable of long, weaving dribbles on the counter.
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Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Anthony Elanga : Molly Darlington / Getty Images).
