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If you are one of the millions of Americans who pollsters say "voted for change" last November, boy, are you getting it now. As of this spring, for example, illegal border crossings in the western U.S.
, according to CBS News, have "plunged to a level not seen in at least 25 years." That's a massive change for America's usually porous southern border. Massive change also sums up the Trump Administration's tariff policy but complex, arcane, and costly might be more accurate.
While it's impossible to know the change global trade will undergo because of these tariffs, foreign and domestic markets are passing judgment on the plan every day and they hate it. As of April 20, the S&P 500 index, a broad measure of Wall Street sentiment, is down 14 percent since Inauguration Day. That drop is the "stock market's worst start to a presidency in more than a century," reported Politico April 22.
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In late April the Wall Street Journal ran a headline that confirmed S&P's tough judgment: "Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send 'No Confidence Signal.'" Comparing anything to the first year of the Great Depression is never good. If you're a holder of gold, however, you're not only good; you're, well, golden.
Gold's per ounce price from Jan. 1 through April 20 rose almost 30 percent, from $2,750 to nearly $3,500. Take that Wall Street.
Surprisingly, ag commodities have held up well despite equity market chaos caused by the often-changing Trump tariff program. For the year, cattle futures are up almost 10 percent, cotton up 4 percent, corn up 5 percent, soybeans up 3 percent and wheat, the only loser in the bunch, is down a very modest 2.5 percent.
Why such a muted–and, in fact, strikingly resilient–response to what appears to be bone-rattling change in global trade ag policy and nervous equity markets? Aaron Smith, an ag economist at the University of California Davis, takes a crack at an explanation in his latest Ag Data News weekly column. Despite the fact that new U.S.
tariffs on China and China's retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. "make little economic sense," prices for the biggest ag export to China, soybeans, have basically just "yawned" at the news.
That's startling because it's not like we sell China a boatload or two of soybeans; think entire fleets. "Soybeans make up about 10% of total US exports to China, and about half of its agricultural exports," writes Smith. Indeed, "Of the approximately 4.
4 billion bushels of soybeans produced by American farmers each year, a quarter are exported to China." So why is the export-dependent soybeans futures market sleepwalking through today's tariff-riddled spring? "Maybe the time of year has something to do with it," surmises Smith, noting the U.S.
soy exports to China "peak in the fall after the harvest." China then turns to South America to top its bins until the new U.S.
bean crop usually brings abundant supplies and lower prices. Still, "There aren't many soybeans being exported to China at the present, so perhaps that explains the muted price response." "If the tariffs persist," Smith concludes, "they are likely to have substantial economic costs.
Yet," he adds, stepping out on thin limb, "so far the soybean market seems underwhelmed." "My bet," he writes as he inches further out into space, "is that markets see 125% tariffs as so ridiculous that they will mostly be gone by November." He's right; 125 percent tariffs are ridiculous.
He's also right about another thing; everything could–and likely will–change between now and November. Download the new Journal Star News Mobile App Top Journal Star photos for April 2025 (From left) Eleanor Isaacson, Aspen Isaacson, Levi Isaacson and Norah Isaacson empty their plastic easter eggs of candy on Saturday, April 19, 2025, at Woods Park in Lincoln. An opponent of LB89, also known as the Stand With Women Act, holds a LGBTQ+ pride flag up to a window as Sen.
Jane Raybould of Lincoln prints something off during a floor debate at the Capitol on Tuesday. Papillion-La Vista's Ryan Thompson breaks his bat as he hits the ball against Lincoln East on Monday at Sherman Field. Jadyn Olesen (center) embraces Olive Brethouwer (left) and Violet Brethouwer (right) after her performance on Monday at the Railyard in Lincoln.
Violet considers Olesen her hero, and even cut her hair to resemble the singer’s. Lincoln Southwest's Peyton Tiernan (14) and Lincoln Southwest's Yai Tong (18) vie for possesion of the ball against Lincoln Southeast's Jack Talley (6) during the first half at Seacrest Field on Saturday, April 19, 2025, in Lincoln. Protesters gather on the north steps of the Capitol during an anti-Trump demonstration on Saturday.
Charlotte Eberle, 8, leaps over rows of tulips while picking flowers with her family at SR Pumpkin and Flower Farm near Ceresco on Friday. Construction worker Gustavo Leverman works on a home in the 800 block of West Avondale Street on Tuesday. Rising costs for building materials like lumber due to tariffs have raised the average cost of building a home.
Luke Shaner peeks through a fake dinosaur egg with his toy T-Rex at the Jurassic Quest event Friday at the Sandhills Global Event Center. Lincoln East's Carter Harmes (3) high fives his teammates after scoring a run as he heads back inside the dugout in the second inning of the HAC baseball championship at Den Hartog Field on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Lincoln Star goalkeeper Yan Shostak (33) blocks a shot by Sioux City's Nikita Klepov (92) as he is backed up by teammate Gio Digiulian (17) during the second period in Game 1 of a USHL Western Conference semifinals series Friday, April 18, 2025, at the Ice Box.
Damien Rodriguez (front to back), Jason Bell and Cesar Gonzalez, who competed as the team “Three Blind Mice,” pull a plane on Saturday during the Woman in Aviation Cornhusker Chapter's 2nd Annual Plane Pull at the Lincoln Airport. Loren Eiseley Society vice president Thomas Lynch (from left), society president Bing Chen, and Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird unveil a new historical marker honoring writer Loren Eiseley on Friday at Irvingdale Park. Mary Abebe (left) returns to her seat after being named the 2025 Scottish Rite Educator of the Year as Brenda Barnett and Stacie Coatman congratulate her on Friday at Adams Elementary School.
Abebe, who teachers computer science, started at Lincoln Public Schools in 1995 and moved to Adams in 2019. Lincoln Northeast's Lazerek Houston poses for a photo during the 2025 Super State photoshoot at the Lincoln Journal Star on Saturday, April 5, 2025, in Lincoln. Omaha Skutt's Molly Ladwig poses for a photo during the 2025 Super State photoshoot at the Lincoln Journal Star on Saturday, April 5, 2025, in Lincoln.
Nebraska head coach Rhonda Revelle (from left) embraces player Natalia Hill at the top of the 6th inning next to Jordyn Bahl during the Creighton game on Wednesday at Bowlin Stadium. Zemi Wolfe records as she dumps water on her mother, Rudi Wolfe, on Saturday at Zeman Elementary School. The school hosted a color run, picnic, splash towers and other family-friendly events with proceeds going to support the school's summer activities.
Protesters with the American Federation of Government Employees union (AFGE) hold a rally outside of the Lincoln VA Clinc at on Tuesday, April 8, 2025, in Lincoln. The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) local representing Department of Veterans Affairs employees at the Lincoln VA Clinic rallied Tuesday to stop the attacks on the federal workforce. Cows graze in the fields below as Sandhill Cranes take flight at sunrise along the Platte River on Sunday, April 6, 2025, in Kearney.
The Cranes eat corn from the grain fields and then sleep on the sandbars. The largest congregation of sandhill cranes occurs from February to early April along the Platte River in Nebraska. Gretna East senior Sonora DeFini scores against Lincoln Southwest with a header during a high school soccer game on Monday, April 7, 2025, at Beechner Athletic Complex.
Sen. Ashlei Spivey during debate on a bill that would return Nebraska to a winner-take-all presidential election system at the Capitol on Tuesday. Halsey, a Great Horned Owl, looks through a kaleidoscope of mirrors on display on Saturday, April 5, 2025, at Indian Center Inc in Lincoln.
Lincoln Southwest's Sole Jones (center) competes against other athletes in heat one of the girls 400m during a track and field invitational at Union Bank Stadium on Thursday, April 3, 2025, in Lincoln. A bee covered in pollen buzzes from flower to flower on Sunday, April 6, 2025, at the Sunken Gardens in Lincoln. Jarrek Renshaw, a lead mechanic, works on an engine in a testing area at Duncan Aviation on Wednesday.
Duncan is expanding its engine overhaul facility, which will allow it to test engines for Canadian aerospace manufacturer Pratt & Whitney. University of Kansas students Remi Ward (left) and Jess Judd test out their concrete canoe Friday at Holmes Lake. The University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Engineering hosted a competition in which college students from across the region used their own concrete mixes to design and build canoes -- some more than 20 feet long and weighing more than 300 pounds.
The canoes were tested for buoyancy and raced at Holmes Lakes. The event was part of the American Society of Civil Engineers' Mid-America Student Symposium hosted by UNL from Thursday through Saturday. Rutgers’ Yomar Carreras (left) slides into home as Nebraska’s Will Jesske tags him out on Sunday at Haymarket Park.
An early voter drops off her ballot at a drop box at the Lancaster County Election Commission Office, 601 N. 46th St., on Friday in Lincoln.
The primary election is Tuesday. Nebraska defensive line coach Terry Bradden talks to players during a team practice on Tuesday, April 8, 2025, at Hawks Championship Center. Sandhill Cranes excitedly dance with one another as they begin to stir along the sandbars on the Platte River the morning of Sunday, April 6, 2025, in Kearney.
' Hundreds of thousands of Sandhill Cranes have been converging on the Platte Basin for their annual migration to their northern breeding grounds. Every spring, as sandhill cranes are migrating to their breeding grounds, cranes without partners will start pairing up. During this time, the cranes perform dancing displays.
Although the dancing is most common in the breeding season, the cranes can dance all year long. Sometimes the dance involves wing-flapping, bowing, and jumping. Jacob Huebert, president of the Liberty Justice Center, argues at the Nebraska Supreme Court in a case over the city's ban on guns in public places on Thursday, April 3, 2025, at the Capitol.
Gov. Jim Pillen (right) greets World War II veterans Clare Sward (from left) and Jay Cawley on Tuesday in Lincoln. Lincoln Pius X's Tatum Heimes (from left) and Ana Patera look on as Gretna East's Lily Frederick (far right) celebrates a goal with teammate Madi Shelburne during a high school soccer game on Monday, March 31, 2025, in Lincoln.
The Farm and Food File is published weekly throughout the U.S. and Canada.
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