1 week Ago By Naqibullah
With the arrival of 2025, the gold market continues to be influenced by global factors. Predicting the price trend of this precious metal in the coming year requires a thorough analysis of a set of economic, political, and financial indicators. Therefore, the following discusses the outlook for gold in 2025, based on current developments and future expectations.
One of the most important factors influencing the gold market in 2025 will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies.
Given that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at high levels in recent years, it is expected that, in the first half of 2025, it will gradually adjust its tightening policies. Lower interest rates are likely to weaken the U.S.
dollar, which typically leads to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. In addition to monetary policies, geopolitical developments will also play a key role in determining the price of gold. Ongoing tensions between China and the U.
S., regional crises in the Middle East, and potential conflicts in Eastern Europe are factors that could increase market concerns, leading to higher demand for gold. On the other hand, a slowdown in global economic growth, especially in emerging economies, may exert pressure on the consumer demand for gold, although this effect will likely be smaller compared to investment-driven demand.
Central Banks and Continued Gold Purchases In 2024, central banks played a significant role in stabilizing the gold market, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025. According to the World Gold Council, central banks in countries like Turkiye, India, and China will continue to purchase gold reserves. This move by central banks aims to strengthen foreign currency reserves and reduce dependence on the U.
S. dollar, which will serve as a strong supportive factor for gold prices. In Afghanistan, it is anticipated that the gold market will fluctuate due to both internal and external factors.
The increase in global gold prices, combined with fluctuations in exchange rates, will affect the price of gold in the domestic market. As seen in 2024, fluctuations in the U.S.
dollar in Afghanistan’s open market played a determining role in the price of gold, and this trend is likely to continue in 2025. The Kabul Goldsmiths’ Union believes that if political and economic tensions persist globally, gold prices in Afghanistan will remain high. “In a situation where global instability continues and trade tariffs between countries increase, gold will remain a safe asset of interest,” said Mohammad Bashir Ehsanzada, head of the Kabul Goldsmiths’ Union.
The sharp rise in gold prices has reduced many Afghan families’ ability to purchase gold. As living costs rise while incomes remain stagnant, buying gold for occasions like weddings has become a serious challenge. Many market vendors report a sharp decline in demand.
According to analyses from reputable international institutions, if the expansionary monetary policies and political tensions continue, the price of gold in 2025 could reach new highs. Some predictions suggest that the price of gold per ounce could reach around $2,600 to $2,800. However, these predictions depend on the extent of interest rate cuts, the severity of geopolitical crises, and the level of central bank gold purchases.
In Afghanistan, if the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is not controlled, we are likely to see continued growth in gold prices.
This issue will not only affect the gold market but will also impact other commodity markets, putting additional pressure on household economies. Gold continues to maintain its position as a safe-haven asset in a globally unstable environment. The fluctuations of 2024 and the outlook for 2025 indicate that investors and central banks are aware of the strategic importance of this precious metal.
For Afghanistan, understanding these trends and adopting intelligent fiscal and monetary policies could help stabilize the country’s economy. Given the current situation, gold seems likely to remain a safe haven for capital, both for global investors and for ordinary Afghan people, who continue to see gold as one of the symbols of preserving the value of their assets. Abdul Hai Nasiri.
