2 weeks Ago
Can Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat earn the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference for the third straight season? The Heat have a different path than the past two seasons, as this year they need to win two road play-in games in a row to earn the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Step one of the plan is complete – Miami knocked off Chicago on Wednesday – and now it’s hitting the road to play Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks in a winner-take-all game on Friday night.
Young, who was ejected from Tuesday’s loss against the Orlando Magic in a battle for the No. 7 seed, is hoping to get the Hawks back to the playoffs in what was supposed to be a bit of a rebuilding year. Atlanta finished three games better than Miami in the standings during the regular season, but the Heat are the team that’s favored in this matchup.
Granted, it’s only by one point, but oddsmakers clearly believe in this Miami squad after how great it looked on Wednesday. During the regular season, these teams split their four matchups, although Miami won the last two meetings (one in late February and one in late March). The Hawks, who have lost Jalen Johnson for the season, are heavily reliant on Young to make their offense go.
Can they get enough to beat a Miami team that has a ton of play-in and playoff experience on its roster? Here’s a look at the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown. Heat vs. Hawks Odds, Spread and Total Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread Heat -1 (-110) Hawks +1 (-110) Moneyline Heat: -115 Hawks: -105 Total 219.5 (Over -110/Under -110) Heat vs. Hawks How to Watch Date: Friday, April 18 Time: 7:00 p.
m. EST Venue: State Farm Arena How to Watch (TV): TNT Heat record: 37-45 Hawks record: 40-42 Heat vs. Hawks Injury Reports Alec Burks – available Haywood Highsmith – available Duncan Robinson – available Kevin Love – questionable Pelle Larsson – questionable Nikola Jovic – questionable Kobe Bufkin – out Clint Capela – out Jalen Johnson – out Larry Nance Jr.
– out Trae Young – probable Heat vs. Hawks Best NBA Prop Bets Davion Mitchell OVER 16.5 Points and Assists (-115) A midseason acquisition, Mitchell has come up huge for the Heat as of late, putting up 17 or more points and assists in six of his last eight games, including a 15-point, nine-assist showing on Wednesday against Chicago.
Now, Mitchell isn’t going to take a ton of shots for the Heat, but since March 17, he’s averaging over 32 minutes per game to go with 12.1 points and 6.3 assists per night.
An elite defender, Mitchell may be tasked with guarding Young for a good portion of this game, which should mean he’s on the floor quite a bit. In his two matchups with Miami against Atlanta, Mitchell dropped 20 points and six assists in a start where he played over 37 minutes and 16 points and six assists in over 35 minutes off the bench. He’s a terrific target at this number, especially after playing such a crucial role in Miami’s first play-in win.
Trae Young UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105) Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Young could be a player to fade on Friday night: Hawks star Trae Young put together a big game – before getting tossed – against Orlando, but he has struggled against Miami in his career. This season, Young fell short of this line in three of the four games that he played against the Heat, averaging 17.
0 points, 12.3 assists and 2.0 rebounds per game.
For his career, Young is averaging 21.3 points, 9.3 assists and 3.
1 rebounds in 23 games against Miami. So, it’s not normal for him to be hovering around 40.5 points, rebounds and assists against this Erik Spoelstra defense.
The Heat shut down the Bulls in their first play-in tournament game, and they finished the regular season ninth in the league in defensive rating. Even though Miami struggled record wise, the defense has always been a calling card for this group. Young is going to see all types of coverages in this one, as the Hawks really lack a proven No.
2 option with Jalen Johnson done for the season. I don’t see him putting together a big enough game to clear this line, especially if the Heat can slow the pace like they did on Wednesday against the Bulls. Heat vs.
Hawks Prediction and Pick Even though the Heat finished below the Hawks in the standings this season, they closed out the 2024-25 regular season on a high note, ranking third in the NBA in net rating and fourth in the league in offensive rating over their last 10 games. That flip from where the team had been most of the season was very evident in the blowout win over Chicago on Wednesday night. This game is a clash of styles, as the Hawks (27th in opponent points per game) would love to get out and run and play a high-scoring affair on Friday.
However, we saw them struggle against the Magic – the No. 2 defense in the NBA – to generate good looks on offense. The Heat, the No.
9 defense in the NBA, are likely going to follow a similar game plan. Atlanta lacks a proven second option behind Young with Jalen Johnson out for the season, and I expect Miami to sell out to stop him (hence the UNDER bet on him in the prop market). Meanwhile, the Heat have gotten improved offensive play from Bam Adebayo since the All-Star break (averaging over 20 points per game) and Tyler Herro (an All-Star this season) played some of his best basketball of the season down the stretch and in Wednesday’s win over Chicago.
While neither of these teams have fared well against the spread in this spot (Atlanta at home, Miami on the road), I think the Heat can win this game outright. Spoelstra is a mastermind when it comes to adjustments, and he’s shown time and time again that this Miami team is never out – even when it is in a play-in tournament setting. Ultimately, I just don’t think the Hawks have enough scoring options to compete with the Heat if this game turns into a half-court slog.
At this price, Miami is worth a bet to pick up a win on Friday. Pick: Heat Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings) Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here . Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets.
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