2 weeks Ago By Aaron Spray
As of the time of writing, world markets are being rocked by a fast-changing tariff war . It should be stressed that is it far from clear how it will shake out and where the dust will settle. However, it seems that Boeing is lurching from one crisis to another.
The struggling giant's last "normal" year was 2018 and now, if the tariffs stick, Boeing could be priced out of the Chinese market and even the international market. China's retaliatory tariffs could be the death knell of Boeing's sales to China. However, this is an extremely fluid situation and it is unclear what will happen.
Here is what to know concerning what may happen to Boeing sales if Chinese and other tariffs stick. Chinese Airlines Could Dump Boeing Orders On April 8, the state-run Chinese news agency, Yicai Global , reported that China's retaliatory tariffs will "significantly raise" the cost of the Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines. It adds this will potentially lead them to " adjust their fleet procurement strategies .
" The state-run news said that the 34% tariff hike increase will likely cause Chinese airlines to seek alternative suppliers or delay purchases to mitigate the impact. As of the time of writing, Chinese tariffs on US goods have risen to 125%. Before the latter tariff increase, the Chinese tariffs had the effect of increasing the duties on Boeing planes and related aviation parts to nearly 40%, up from 5%.
Now, it's presumably an impossible 130% or so. According to the publication, China's aviation market still has excess capacity. A representative of one of the big three Chinese airlines told Yicai that its strategy is focused on " expanding narrowbody fleets while controlling widebody growth.
" In the short term, Chinese carriers may prioritize leasing planes over directly purchasing them. Long-term Chinese strategies could shift to ordering Airbus or Chinese COMAC aircraft. In short, China's reciprocal tariffs include Boeing aircraft, and this is pricing Boeing aircraft out of the world's second-largest aviation market.
While the C919 airframe is Chinese-built, the engines and much of its avionics and flight control systems are Western-built. Opportunity & Risk For China's COMAC Yicai also noted that tariffs may bring new opportunities for the Chinese C919 (a Boeing 737 MAX challenger). These are now being delivered to and operated by Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern.
It has plans to produce 200 of the aircraft a year by 2029. China is investing heavily in its efforts to develop its own aviation industry. Chinese airlines and other companies are thought to have already placed orders for around a thousand examples of the COMAC C919 .
However, as Simple Flying has previously reported , the Chinese COMAC C919 and C909 aircraft are deeply reliant on US and European engines, avionics, flight control systems, and other systems, as few of their inner workings are Chinese products. Not only will the price of these aircraft increase as China tariffs C919 components imported from the United States , but this makes the aircraft exceptionally vulnerable to US sanctions. Airplane-maker market share: Airbus: 56% Boeing: 40% Embraer: 3.
6% COMAC: 0.4% If Sino-American relations continue to deteriorate, the tariff war could evolve into a sanction war. In 2022, Western sanctions brought Russian commercial aircraft to a screeching halt virtually overnight, and it is unclear when (or if) Russia will restart commercial aircraft production.
In the event of US sanctions, there is little reason to think this wouldn't happen with COMAC. After all, China lacks an engine of its own to power it . There are many factors that could influence COMAC's ability to challenge Airbus and Boeing's duopoly in Asia.
AerCap Says That Tariffs Would Harm Boeing In March 2025, the CEO of AerCap, the world's largest aircraft lessor, sounded the alarm that Boeing stood more to lose from the tariff war than its rival Airbus, as reported by CNBC . AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly noted that as the world's largest purchaser of aircraft, AerCap has a great understanding of the industry. He said that an " absolute worst-case scenario " could be a 25% increase in tariffs across the board on tariffs from both sides, and that the price of a Boeing 787 would increase by around $40 million.
When asked if the airlines would pass that cost onto the passengers, he said that "n o one's going to pay that, that won't happen, " emphasizing the fact that no one can afford to pay those numbers. He then said that the world's airlines would likely turn to Airbus. Airbus could see its market share increase to as much as 75% to 80% of the global market with Boeing largely left with the United States market.
Boeing 's commercial aircraft order backlog (April 2025): Boeing 737 family: 4,775 Boeing 767: 104 (all freighter and military tanker variants) Boeing 777: 604 Boeing 787: 836 Total: 6,319 In essence, that would leave Boeing as the planemaker for the US market, while Airbus takes the rest of the world. While the United States has the largest aviation market in the world, it is dwarfed by the rest of the world when the other countries are added together. Making matters worse, it could split the North American market, dividing Mexico and Canada from the United States.
Boeing Is More Exposed This is potentially worse than may seem at first glance. Boeing has secured 521 firm orders for its upcoming widebody Boeing 777X, but not one of them is from a US airline. All are export customers, with the one caveat being that 31 were sold to unidentified customers.
On April 7th, Leeham News stated that the tariffs announced by the US " threaten retaliatory tariffs against Boeing at a far greater level than Airbus faces ." Leeham went so far as to say that even Boeing's domestic US deliveries could potentially be hit with tariffs on foreign-sourced parts, components, and engines. It asserted that Boeing potentially has three times more aircraft subject to retaliatory tariffs than " Airbus has exposure in the US with its European and Canadian sales to US customers.
" It should be noted that many of the components found in Airbus aircraft (especially engines) are also sourced from the United States. Boeing's Cash & Certification Crisis In the short term, Boeing's biggest issue is a lack of cash. To get cash it needs to sell its aircraft, but this is constrained by the FAA delaying type certificates for the Boeing 737 MAX 7, MAX 10, and the Boeing 777X.
The AerCap CEO noted that Boeing has made large strides in improving the quality of its aircraft over the last year, but it remains to be seen when this translates into FAA certificates. If the delays in certifications continue, he said that this will translate to Airbus taking over more of the market share. While about half of Boeing's business is defense and space and the other half is commercial aircraft, Kelly said the 'lifeblood' of Boeing is its commercial aircraft division.
Delta Air Lines is a leading buyer of Airbus aircraft. The giant has stated it will not pay tariffs on Airbus aircraft. Instead, it will delay those deliveries if tariffs are added.
This appears to be an emerging pattern for Boeing aircraft as well. For example, Ryanair operates one of the world's largest Boeing fleets and has warned of significant delays with its Boeing deliveries. If airlines start delaying Boeing deliveries en masse, it's likely Boeing's cash crisis is about to get much worse.
A Boeing MAX 8's market value is around $55 million, similar to its Airbus A320neo counterpart. Looking Towards The Worst-Case Scenario A few weeks after Aengus Kelly outlined the repercussions for Boeing, the US announced 20% tariffs on the European Union, 10% on the United Kingdom, 25% on Canada, and, as of the time of writing, 145% on China. At the time of writing, the EU and the United Kingdom have yet to fully respond and negotiations are ongoing.
The US has also announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs of over 10% for all countries excluding China, Canada, and Mexico. The EU, UK, and Canada all have significant aerospace sectors. Year: Total Boeing commercial deliveries: Total Airbus commercial deliveries: 2018 806 800 2019 380 863 2020 157 566 2021 340 611 2022 480 661 2023 528 735 2024 348 766 However, the EU did announce 25% reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of US products that included various agricultural products, steel, yachts, and aluminum.
It is unclear to what decrease this wave of selective tariffs affects the aerospace sector. All this is to say that the situation is incredibly volatile, but the world could be heading for the worst-case scenario Aengus Kelly outlined. Or it could be resolved and things return to normal.
The A320 family of commercial jets is set to overtake the Boeing 737 to become the most delivered in 2025. The Perfect Storm It seems that since 2018, Boeing has endured a veritable perfect storm of crises, some of which are interrelated. For example, the Boeing 737 MAX crisis has also resulted in a much lower output of the MAX family and FAA certification delays for new aircraft.
Additionally, the pandemic also resulted in Boeing shutting one production line for the 787 Dreamliner (it's now only produced in North Carolina) and it has resulted in drawn-out supply chain constraints. Other issues have included: Continuing supply chain disruptions. Sustained reduced deliveries.
FAA certification delays. Cash shortage. Threats of a tariff trade war.
You can also throw in other issues, like the massive losses Boeing is taking on its Air Force One replacement and its Starliner space capsule, as well as the damaging 2024 worker strikes, which have just added to making its cash shortage worse. However, if AerCap's prediction of the worst-case scenario comes true, Boeing could be facing a bigger challenge: being locked out of the Chinese and wider international export market..
