2 weeks Ago By Dan Zarrow
The Bottom Line It feels weird — and even wrong — to talk excitedly about our current streak beautiful springtime weather, when a massive wildfire continues to burn in southern Ocean County. The Jones Road Wildfire broke out in the Greenwood Forest Wildlife Management Area on Tuesday. And it has sparked mandatory evacuations, road closures (including the Parkway and Route 9), and power outages around Lacey, Waretown, Forked River, and Barnegat.
Wildfires are scary. And their growth and spread are heavily influenced by weather conditions, including wind, relative humidity, and precipitation. (Which I call Smokey Bear's Holy Trinity .
) Let me address the "fire weather" conditions first, and then I will talk about the forecast. We have three more pleasantly mild days in the 70s ahead, before some much-needed rain arrives to start the final weekend of April. Fire Weather Honestly, New Jersey's fire danger is not that extreme or extraordinary right now.
Winds are relatively light, and relative humidity is moderate. The biggest factor in fire ignition and spread is the dry brush — we have not had appreciable, soaking rain in 12 days at this point. The biggest factor for future fire growth (and firefighter efforts) is wind direction.
On Tuesday, winds will blowing out of the west. That means the thick smoke plume and embers were blowing directly toward the Garden State Parkway, Route 9 corridor, and Island Beach State Park. As of Wednesday morning, the wind direction has shifted to a north-northeast direction.
(Again, that is the direction the wind is blowing from .) So now the fire is being gently steered from north to south, with smoke drifting toward Barnegat and Stafford townships. Flames are moving from those busy roads, and away from populated areas.
Further complicated matters will be a sea breeze expected to kick up Wednesday afternoon, potentially adding an easterly component to the wind. And then on Thursday, winds will blow from the south-southwest. While these highly variable winds will blow smoke in all directions, I think the changes will help firefighters.
If they can anticipate the shifts and set controlled backburns accordingly, the wildfire could spread into already-burnt areas — a recipe for easy extinguishment. My heart goes out to all the first responders and officials working hard to get a handle on this firestorm. And to all the residents and business owners affected by this massive blaze.
Wednesday Beyond the fire...
Wednesday will be another pleasant, mild day. Expect sunshine with passing clouds, a light breeze, and completely dry weather. Tuesday was in the 80s for approximately the southern half of the state.
Wednesday will end up cooler, averaging 70 to 75 degrees across the state. The coolest spot will be the Jersey Shore. Highs for coastal communications will only reach the 50s (barrier islands) to 60s (mainland beaches).
Wednesday night stays quiet, clear, and comfortably cool. Low temperatures will dip to around 50. Thursday Another very nice day.
We will see partly sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 70s. That's it. Friday One more warm day, in the 70s.
I could see an 80-degree reading or two in South Jersey. Skies will turn mostly cloudy Friday morning. But most of the day will be dry.
A few showers and thunderstorms could job into NJ after about 5 p.m. Friday evening.
Rain chances will only increase through Friday night. Saturday The wettest part of this forecast is Saturday morning, with a widespread batch of scattered rain pushing across New Jersey. The timing is still shaky here, with lingering raindrops possible (but not guaranteed) into the afternoon — it does look like we will get a late-day drying and clearing trend.
Total rainfall will likely range from less than a quarter-inch in South Jersey to over a half-inch to the north. Some localized downpours could push isolated totals closer to an inch. Not quite a "healthy soaking" — but we will take every drop we can get.
Of course, rain over a spring weekend is not ideal. And any "rain or shine" events may be challenged this weekend. My biggest concern would be for embedded thunderstorms to form — since every thunderstorm contains lightning (by definition), every thunderstorm is potentially dangerous.
Because of the rain and clouds, high temperatures will come down a bit on Saturday, to around 70 degrees. Sunday & Beyond A cooler air mass takes over New Jersey's atmosphere for Sunday. But it is really just a correction to more seasonable conditions — we still have more pleasant weather ahead.
Sunday looks sunny and breezy, with highs in the mid 60s. That is par for the course for this time of year. Monday will be partly sunny and near 70.
Tuesday and Wednesday will surge toward 80+ degrees again, before another cold front and another chance of rain midweek. Frightening scenes of the Jones Road Wildfire The smoke from the Jones Road Wildfire in a forest of Ocean County on April 22, 2025, could be seen for miles, including from the coast. Gallery Credit: New Jersey 101.
5 Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates. New Jersey Spring isn't all it's cracked up to be Gallery Credit: Kyle Clark.
