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BN is likely to retain the Ayer Kuning seat, though achieving the Perak MB’s target of an 18,000-vote majority appears challenging.PH’s vote transfer to BN is seen as crucial, with Chinese voters remaining cautious, prompting separate DAP and MCA campaigns.PN is focusing on young Malay voters but is expected to have limited appeal in Ayer Kuning’s mixed electorate.
TAPAH, April 25 – Barisan Nasional (BN) appears poised to retain the Ayer Kuning state seat, with the main challenge being whether federal ally Pakatan Harapan (PH) can deliver a sizeable majority, according to a new report by research outfit Ilham Centre.However, the study observed that the Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad’s stated goal of an 18,000-vote majority has heightened pressure on both BN and PH campaigners, with many of those polled believing the target may be difficult to reach.“The Ayer Kuning by-election stands as a critical benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of collaboration within the Unity Government, PN’s true influence among young Malay voters, and the degree to which candidates’ personal appeal will sway voting outcomes and influence local political direction ahead of the next general election,” it said.
Vote transfer from Pakatan Harapan (PH) to BN is also seen as pivotal, with Ilham Centre noting that Chinese voters remain cautious of BN, prompting separate campaigning efforts by DAP and MCA.In GE15, BN’s late candidate Ishsam Shahruddin had won against PH’s Major (Rtd) Mohd Nazri Hashim with a 2,213-vote majority. “In general, voters who previously backed PH do not face major obstacles in transferring their support to the BN candidate, given the mutual understanding within the Unity Government.
“Meanwhile, the Orang Asli community has clearly remained loyal to BN, seeing the party as still relevant due to its continued service in addressing their needs,” it said.Ilham Centre said compared to BN, opposition pact Perikatan Nasional (PN) is focusing on retaining its base among Malay voters, particularly youths, who contributed to the coalition’s strength in the 15th General Election (GE15).“In GE15, PN won four Malay-majority polling districts in Ayer Kuning, signalling a shift from Umno’s traditional stronghold,” it said, noting that a repeat performance would still be seen as a major success for PN.
It said PN is giving little attention to non-Malay constituents, which may limit its impact in a mixed seat like Ayer Kuning.The findings were compiled by Ilham Centre’s research panel following interviews with voters of all backgrounds conducted between April 18 and 24.Voters will go to the ballot tomorrow to choose between BN candidate Mohamad Yusri Bakir, Abd Muhaimin Malek (PN), and Bawani KS (PSM).
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