IMF revises Nigeria’s economic growth projections to 3% amid global uncertainty, policy shifts

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Says global growth to decline to 2.8% in 2025By Seun IbiyemiThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth projections for Nigeria for both 2025 and 2026, citing a combination of domestic economic pressures and deepening global uncertainties.In its latest World Economic Outlook report, published on Tuesday during the ongoing 2025 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.



C., the IMF revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.0 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 3.

2 percent. For 2026, the forecast was trimmed to 2.7 percent, compared with the previous projection of 3.

0 percent.The revision is attributed to several interlinked factors. The IMF pointed to declining crude oil prices, persistent global trade tensions, and weakened demand from advanced economies as key contributors to the slower growth trajectory.

The Fund also drew attention to the growing threat of a global recession, with the likelihood of such an outcome now estimated at 40 percent — a sharp rise from 25 percent in its previous forecast.As part of a broader assessment, the IMF warned that Nigeria, along with other emerging economies, remains highly exposed to volatility in global supply chains. This exposure, combined with uncertain external conditions, is increasing economic fragility across the region.

The global economic outlook also took a hit. The IMF now anticipates global growth to decline to 2.8 percent in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 3.

3 percent. Escalating trade disputes, especially those involving new tariff regimes introduced by the United States, and policy shifts in key economies were identified as major drag factors.In response to the deteriorating global environment, the IMF urged governments to implement robust policy frameworks aimed at preserving macroeconomic stability.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor, noted that policy uncertainty and trade disruptions are taking a toll on developing countries.“Uncertainty is deterring investment and slowing economic activity. Many of these countries are also seeing reduced demand for their exports,” Gourinchas said.

Although the report struck a cautious tone, it left some room for optimism. The IMF suggested that a reduction in trade tensions and clearer international trade policies could help stimulate global economic activity and restore investor confidence.Still, with risks mounting, the IMF called for coordinated international efforts to build a more predictable and stable trading landscape that could support long-term growth.

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