May F&O Series Begins — Key trends, FII positioning and factors to watch

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The May F&O series is likely to begin on a strong note as the GIFT Nifty is indicating a gap up start. The Nifty saw its second consecutive positive series in April with a 655-point gain. More than the 655-point advance, the bigger takeaway is the fact that the index has now recovered more than 2,500 points from the lows made during the April series.

May Series Year Returns (Points) Returns (%) 2021 443 3 2022 -1,075 -6.2 2023 406 2.3 2024 -82 -0.



4 At the start of the May series, the Nifty rollovers stood at 79%, compared to the three-month average of 80.1%. Series Rollovers May 79.

10% April 76.10% March 83.60% February 80.

80% At the start of this series, the open interest stood at 1.15 crore shares, which is lower than the last three months. The figure is the lowest since the January series.

Month Nifty Open Interest May 1.15 Crore April 1.24 Crore March 1.

68 Crore February 1.73 Crore January 1.12 Crore After being at multi-year lows, the FII long exposure in index futures at the start of the May series is at 41%, which is the highest since October 2024.

Client exposure though, at 45%, is on the lower side. Month FII Longs In Futures May 41% April 40% March 16% February 11% Among the key triggers to watch for the May series include the ongoing earnings season for the March quarter, which can provide a direction to the markets. The other major trigger is the FOMC policy decision on May 7, which can also spark a reaction from US President Donald Trump.

The resultant global and geopolitical developments will also be watched out for..