No tariff shocks yet: San Diego’s jobless rate drops to 4.2%

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DOGE cuts are still not showing up in San Diego unemployment rolls.

San Diego County’s unemployment rate keeps falling.The region’s unemployment rate was 4.2% in March, state labor officials said Friday.

It has been on a steady decline after starting the year at 4.5%, led by education and tourism hiring. At the same time, the nationwide unemployment rate was also 4.



2%, but California was higher at 5.3%.It was another month of little change in local federal government jobs, despite sweeping cuts out of Washington, D.

C. San Diego County’s non-military federal workforce, representing 23,900 jobs, added 100 new positions. The military workforce was 22,500, down by 100 jobs.

San Diego’s job picture mirrors the U.S. in that fears of economic decline due to President Donald Trump’s trade policies, large federal job cuts and wild swings in the stock market have yet to show up as heavy job losses.

However, experts note many federal workers took buyout offers that would keep them getting paid as far as September and would not show up on unemployment rolls.Alan Gin, economist at the University of San Diego, said it would likely take months before we start seeing potential tariff job losses. He said the chain of events would likely start with prices rising, customers spending less and then businesses cutting jobs.

For now, consumer spending is rising, according to March data from Bank of America, Citigroup and others.Gin said what is harder to quantify is if businesses are holding back on hiring. If they are concerned about tariffs, he said, they might pull back on any new jobs they planned to add.

“It’s difficult to take on employees when there’s just so much uncertainty,” he said.March’s report was a mixed bag because of heavy losses offset by substantial hiring in education and the tourism sector. Trade, transportation and utilities — brick-and-mortar retail and warehousing — shed 1,900 jobs from February to March.

Other notable losses were in construction, down by 1,400; financial activities (real estate, insurance, investments), down by 500; and manufacturing, down 200 jobs.Government was the biggest gainer in March, with 2,400 new positions. Hiring was almost exclusively from state government education jobs.

Tourism also had a big boost, up 1,500 jobs, with work in bars, restaurants, hotels and casinos.Related ArticlesThe US has a single rare earths mine. Chinese export limits are energizing a push for moreHoping to install solar? You may have a harder time due to Trump tariffsUS lawmakers’ bipartisan Taiwan visit signals support despite harsh words and tariffs from TrumpStrange sell-off in the dollar raises the specter of investors losing trust in the US under TrumpCalifornia manufacturing jobs, No.

1 in US, face trade war unknownsSan Diego County wasn’t alone in this pattern. A Friday analysis of the entire state by Beacon Economics said California was essentially being propped up by jobs in government, education and health care.David Ely, a finance professor for San Diego State University, said a sign of a healthy economy is widespread growth across all sectors, not just a few areas.

“It’s not like people are easily able to transfer from one part of the economy into another part,” he said. “Skills and so forth don’t easily transfer, so that’s a concern.”Ely noted capital gains make up a significant portion of California’s budget so it’s still unclear how recent stock market drops could play out in the future.

He reasoned cuts in future state budgets could be trouble considering San Diego County’s biggest growth is coming from education jobs funded by Sacramento.San Diego County’s labor force — adults who either have a job or are actively looking for one — reached 1.68 million, up 1.

9% in a year. That is the highest it has ever been, said data from the state Employment Development Department. It has been a slow climb back from the pandemic.

There were more than 1.6 million workers in March 2020, falling to 1.5 million the next month before, and for the most part, steadily rising ever since.

On an annual basis, private education and health services was the biggest growing sector in San Diego County, adding 9,900 jobs. Work in the industry includes nursing, social assistance and education jobs at private schools, colleges and universities.It was followed by government (mainly education), adding 9,500 positions, and leisure and hospitality (tourism), with 2,900 jobs.

Every other sector lost jobs on an annual basis. Manufacturing saw the biggest losses, shedding 4,300 jobs. It was followed by professional and business services (legal, scientific, waste management, architectural), down 2,900 jobs; construction, down 1,800; financial activities, also down 1,800; information (telecommunications, newspapers, publishing industry), down 800 jobs; and services (laundry, maintenance, religious), also down by 800 jobs.

The most job openings in San Diego County in March were for retail salespersons, according to state data that aggregates job postings during the month. It was followed by nurses, home health and personal care aides, customer service representatives and software developers.Organizations with the most job ads were UC San Diego, Apple, Scripps Health, Starbucks, Qualcomm and General Atomics.

State officials do not seasonally adjust jobless rates for individual counties. Compared with other parts of California, San Diego County was in the middle of the pack with its unadjusted rate of 4.2%.

The rate was 5.6% in Los Angeles County, 3.8% in Orange County, 3.

7% in San Francisco County, 4% in Santa Clara County, 7% in Santa Cruz County and 5.1% in Riverside County..