3 weeks Ago
Nvidia warned it will record a $5.5 billion quarterly charge linked to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China, as well as other destinations, leading some analysts to trim their outlook on the chipmaker. Bank of America and Piper Sandler were among the shops that lowered their price targets on Nvidia following the company's announcement.
In a regulatory filing, Nvidia disclosed that the the federal government told Nvidia it would need a license to export the chips to China and other countries. The news sent Nvidia shares tumbling more than 4%, pressuring other semiconductor names as well. Major tech stocks such as Meta Platforms and Alphabet also pulled back.
But while some analysts trimmed their price targets, many maintained their buy-equivalent ratings on the stock. Here's what some of the biggest firms are saying in response to the announcement: Bank of America: buy rating, price target reduced to $160 from $200 Analyst Vivek Arya's updated target reflects more than 42% upside from Tuesday's close. The analyst also estimates a "manageable" impact of 5% to 8% on sales and a 6% to 10% EPS impact as a result of the H20 charge.
"We continue to find NVDA stock compelling, trading < 1x its earnings growth, since global demand for leading-edge AI and NVDA's unmatched platform leadership can continue to offset regional headwinds. ..
. One could also argue the immediate stock decline would be unwelcome but perhaps reduce the overhang that has existed on the stock since late last year when the Biden administration increased AI chip controls." Piper Sandler: overweight rating, price target cut to $150 from $175 Analyst Harsh Kumar's new target implies more than 33% upside potential.
"This is surprising to us given the H20 chip was originally designed to meet export control restrictions originally set out by the USG. We see this incremental restriction as a part of the Trump Administration's effort to keep chip sales and computing capabilities down in China following H20's original clearance previously." Morgan Stanley: overweight rating, price target at $162 Analyst Joseph Moore's target calls for more than 44% upside ahead.
Moore did trim estimates for data center revenues over the next couple of quarters. "We remain very bullish on Blackwell, but the constraint there is supply, so a more sudden reduction in H20 - and given the inventory writedown, a higher revenue expectation going forward for H20 - will likely be disruptive to revenue and earnings. The last time the company was impacted by export controls, it was for the same product in China that was shipping everywhere else, so the supply could just be re-routed, but here, a shutdown of H20 has no impact to the Blackwell ramp.
" Raymond James: strong buy, cuts price target to $150 from $170 Analyst Srini Pajjuri's updated target implies more than 33% upside from here. The analyst also lowered first-quarter 2026 revenue by about $900 million and is calling for "flattish" revenue growth for the second quarter. "H20 restrictions aren't entirely unexpected in our view even though recent media reports suggested no imminent ban.
At 27x P/E, we believe the stock is already reflecting the H20 risk (NVDA traded at a 5-year average P/E of ~40x prior to ChatGPT-driven AI spending boom). More importantly, our recent conversations in Asia point to no slowdown in AI spending at hyperscale customers. Blackwell (GB200) is ramping in volume and GB300 is on track for F3Q shipment, which should help sustain momentum through the year.
" TD Cowen: buy rating, $140 price target Analyst Joshua Buchalter's target points to nearly 25% upside. "While we acknowledge near-term headwinds for NVIDIA (and peers alike) related to sales into China, we remain confident that NVIDIA is the leader in accelerated computing. We believe the CPU/GPU/DPU combination of Grace/ Blackwell (eventually to Vera/Rubin) systems positions the company to sustain strong Datacenter growth in the coming years irregardless of any potential China-related issues longer-term.
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