Ontario report warns 'modest recession' could be sparked by Donald Trump's tariffs

The Trump tariffs could lead to a “modest recession” this year with up to 68,000 job losses, says a new report from Ontario’s financial accountability office. And by the end of next year, some 120,000 jobs could be impacted — with those in manufacturing particularly hard hit — the report says, and the GDP could slow. “The U.

S. has announced numerous tariffs on goods it imports from abroad, with many subsequent changes on the extent and timing of the tariffs,” said the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) in a report released Wednesday. “Given Ontario’s strong trade relationship with the U.



S., these tariffs will have a significant negative impact on the province’s economy.” Premier Doug Ford , who in February campaigned on the U.

S. threats to the economy here , told reporters that “the tariffs will hurt — absolutely they’ll hurt — but I have confidence that we’ll work things out with the United States and President Trump.” Zero tariffs are “the only thing that we will accept, as simple as that,” Ford said.

“The supply chain is so integrated that it’s just going to hurt Canadians and Americans. So I’m confident — I really am. I always look at the glass is half full .

.. I’m predicting that we’re going to do better than other jurisdictions around the world and around North America.

” In its report, the FAO said tariffs on goods such as steel, aluminum and automobiles, as well as Canada’s retaliatory measures — those in place as of April 17 — could slow GDP growth to 0.6 per cent this year, less than half of pre-tariff predictions, and “this implies a modest recession would occur in 2025.” In 2026, “Ontario’s real GDP growth would be 1.

2 per cent, compared to a 1.9 per cent growth in a no-tariff outlook,” the FAO said, confirming the manufacturing sector would be hardest hit, but warning that “all other sectors, including services, would also be impacted through supply chain effects and broader economic impacts from lower incomes, profits, consumption and investment.” However, “the actual impact of tariffs on Ontario’s economy is uncertain and will depend on the magnitude and breadth of tariff coverage, as well as how businesses, households and economies respond,” the FAO said.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a plan to ease auto tariffs, which were set at 25 per cent.

In the legislature, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said “breaking news from the FAO ...

tariffs have an impact on the Canadian economy.” But he said the province “is not going to speculate on what impact that may have on trade and on jobs ..

. We will do whatever it takes to protect Ontarians, protect their jobs, protect the communities and protect the businesses.” New Democrat MPP Catherine Fife, her party’s economic development and trade critic, said the province is looking for leadership and that Ford needs to focus on keeping businesses and jobs in the province.

“The FAO report today is a wake-up call to the government, to Ontarians,” added NDP Leader Marit Stiles. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha.

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