1 week Ago By [email protected] (Melissa Maynard)
Professor Roger Hosein, economist and University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, is urging whoever forms the next government following Monday’s election to urgently reassess the country’s economic strategy. Hosein warned that excessive subsidies are a major issue and stressed the immediate need for structural transformation. Speaking during a UWI lecture at its Augustine Campus on Thursday, Hosein highlighted the nation’s fiscal and economic challenges, pointing to a shrinking energy sector and an underutilised non-energy economy.
“In a setting where we have a non-energy fiscal balance averaging minus $23 billion in recent years, we are in real trouble,” Hosein said. He explained that once external debts are subtracted from official reserves, the country’s net reserves have plummeted from US$36.8 million in 2024 to a mere US$39,000.
Hosein also called for strategic investment in the manufacturing sector, highlighting its productivity advantage over agriculture. He noted that manufacturing output is about ten times greater than that of agriculture. Pointing to its possibilities, he said: “If we can increase employment in the sector from 39,000 to 75,000 over the next five years using the E-Teck Park mechanism and public-private partnerships, we could transform our long-term growth potential in this economy.
” Referencing a probability model from 1999 to 2023, Hosein argued that Trinidad and Tobago has remained stuck in a “low comparative advantage” state, with a 91% chance of staying there under current trade structures. “Our policies about changing our structure of trade results needs a serious rethinking,” he urged. The professor also turned attention to tourism, citing Trinidad and Tobago’s underperformance compared to other Caribbean nations.
“Now, when you look at our tourism multiplier, it is one of the highest in the Caribbean. When you look at our tourist per resident, it’s one of the lowest in the Caribbean..
.in other words, we have a lot of spare capacity—and you do not have a plan. And (so to) keep it running with spare capacity when you have no forex—that makes absolutely no sense.
So, therefore, we need to change the way we use our possibilities in the tourism sector,” he said. He continued: “And if we could bring our remittances to Trinidad and Tobago up to the regional average, we can bring in a further US$650 million from remittance.” He suggested T&T goes after “more diaspora resources and remittances”.
He re-emphasised the need to “strengthen non-energy, manufacturing exports.” Moving to crime, Hosein highlighted the correlation between crime and the brain drain: “We’re losing too many young, educated citizens..
.who are migrating and not returning.” Addressing policymakers, he called for a renewed focus on data-driven planning, technical guidance, and diversification.
“I say this with all sincerity. We have mapped this out, spent thousands of hours, and still, the guidance sometimes goes ignored,” he said. He advised that Trinidad and Tobago must reduce crime by at least 50%, expand tertiary programmes, encourage export-oriented activity, and develop economic zones.
“Otherwise, we’ll keep losing our best minds, and our chance at a viable future,” Hosein said..
