2 weeks Ago
The 2025 NFL Draft has arrived, and the Bills are attempting to be as unpredictable as ever. They hold the 30th pick — at least for now. With plenty of intrigue about their selection, it’s time for a draft week staple.
The Draft Files, an annual exercise of trying to channel what Bills general manager Brandon Beane is thinking, is an unpacking of my notebook and entire draft brain about the team’s potential draft strategy. It combines what they have said, the team’s actions, positional values, recent trends, roster and cap structuring and an excessive amount of time by yours truly considering every possible scenario. Advertisement We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s get to it.
1. Understanding where the Bills are in their build and early round strategy The 2024 and 2025 offseasons couldn’t have been much different for the Bills. Last offseason was all about taking some medicine with their salary cap and doing a soft retooling for future cap health while keeping the elite pieces of their roster intact.
This year, the Bills returned almost their entire starting lineup, minus only two players — one replaced in free agency by receiver Joshua Palmer. They’ve even upgraded some spots at defensive end and safety as Cole Bishop has the inside track to the job. As far as 2025 goes, the Bills are in a great place.
But it’s also worth considering what’s coming, just as the Bills did by getting the new elite of their core signed to long-term deals. The team is aging in certain positions and has expiring deals in others. The Bills also have several positions they can cut from to provide cap relief next year.
All of those positions are factored into what their draft leanings could be this year. The Bills will often say they’ll stick to their board and go with the best player available, but as general manager Brandon Beane has shown, they pair the best values of their board with their top needs. Every year that Beane has been in charge, they have used their earliest pick on one of their top needs in that draft.
The term I’ve used for years with Beane is “need meets value,” and that’s likely what they’ll try to do again in 2025. 2. Breaking down the Top Day 1 needs As is the case every year, not every need is the same.
Based on the structure of their roster, future cap sheet and values of positions, we can land on some of what their roster decision-making could hint at for their draft positional preferences. Edge rusher — The Bills have answers here in 2025, but two of their top three (Joey Bosa and A.J.
Epenesa) are free agents in 2026, and the Bills are always looking to add significant investments to the group. Advertisement Defensive tackle — They have starters in 2025, but one-technique starter DaQuan Jones is 33 and in the final year of his deal. They also don’t have a clear backup for him for 2025, meaning a succession plan is needed, and another young asset would help them get there.
Cornerback — Christian Benford is the clear top starter, with Tre’Davious White or Dane Jackson available as one-year options who could play if needed in 2025. However, they need both a long-term starter and a potential short-term starter for 2025, which could be the incoming rookie if he wins the job outright. Wide receiver — The Bills invested their top pick into a pass-catcher in the last two drafts, which could take the Bills elsewhere.
However, if the right type of player who adds something the Bills don’t have is available at No. 30, you can’t rule it out. I did not include safety for a pretty clear reason.
The Bills have two starters designated for 2025 in Bishop and Taylor Rapp, both of whom are signed through at least 2026. They view Rapp as a leader in their defense heading into 2025. I don’t get the sense they are actively trying to replace him this year.
With that need so far in the distance, using their top draft asset on a non-premium position without an early path to playing time would be unlike how they’ve used their top picks in the past. Safety is a popular mock draft position for the Bills, but there seems to be a disconnect between the likely lack of internal need for it and the external belief that it is one of their top needs. 3.
The possible elimination of two Round 1 options Between edge rusher, defensive tackle, cornerback and wide receiver, analyzing the prospects available this year along with the Bills’ needs may give us a better idea as to what the realistic chances are of the position they ultimately take with their top pick, and in turn, potentially pushing positions out of the equation at No. 30. By the way that things are trending, with the intel leading up to the draft, I think the likelihood of two specific positions of that top four takes a hit to be the team’s top selection.
Advertisement The first of those that the Bills may feel comfortable skipping at No. 30 is wide receiver. There are a few reasons for this.
For one, they are confident in Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer and Curtis Samuel. They are smartly open to adding, because they lack a true number one, but they aren’t going to force something. On top of that, it’s a bit of a weaker draft class up top, and the last thing they should do is take one just to take one.
Most of the receivers in first-round consideration, with one exception, duplicate a skill set the Bills already have at receiver. They may instead find what they’re looking for in Round 2 or beyond. The other position the Bills may be out of at No.
30 is edge rusher. It’s not for a lack of wanting one, but there seems to be a pretty clear drop-off from the top six, which includes Abdul Carter, Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams, Shemar Stewart, Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku, to the next tier. Pass rushers generally go early and often in the first round, and the trends have shown all six getting picked within the top 25, if not the top 20.
The seventh-best edge rusher is James Pearce Jr., though his weight (245), arm length (33 inches) and questions about his motivation generally fall outside of what the Bills covet, and he may be better suited to a 3-4 anyway. The lack of supply at No.
30, plus better values elsewhere, could push edge rusher out of the equation. 4. Why DeWayne Carter is the key that opens up the entire DT need As the offseason has gone on, the Bills’ need to draft a defensive tackle has remained.
With Jones likely in his final year with the Bills, they need a long-term starter next to Ed Oliver at one-technique, presumably without an answer on the roster. However, one question that lingered on my mind all offseason was how they viewed 2024 third-round pick DeWayne Carter’s future, and more specifically, what position they would make his home base moving forward. Advertisement As we discovered on Tuesday during Beane’s pre-draft press conference, there is some internal thought that second-year player DeWayne Carter’s first position could be at one-technique, a switch-up from their thoughts last year.
Carter spent much of 2024 at three-technique and was described that way before the season by the team, but occasionally moonlighted at one-technique. Late in the season against the Jets, Carter even played a full game there and did relatively well. “I do think that’s one of those when a guy can play multiple spots like that for you, you look at your makeup once you finish out the build of the team, we’ll know a lot more after this coming weekend of what we add,” Beane said.
“Let’s look at all the ingredients. Who can only play one spot? Who can play multiple spots? And then figure out..
. and I’m just making this up, if you added another three-tech, maybe you say, ‘Hey, DeWayne, we’re going to major as a one (technique), but don’t lose the three (technique) because injuries do happen.” So, what does this information mean to the draft? Above all else, it opens up the possibilities for a versatile piece that can play both spots, even if its home would be at three-technique.
That doesn’t mean the one-technique-only types are out of the equation, but they have more flexibility in who they add to the group than was perceived before knowing the Carter piece. The only defensive tackles that should be off the board play only three-technique and don’t have the versatility to play the stout run-defending role, because they already have one of those in Oliver. 5.
Which Round 1 DTs fit the profile best? Beane’s comments on Carter slightly change the math as to who is on their Round 1 radar. We won’t waste our time on Michigan’s Mason Graham. He definitely won’t be in range for a Bills trade-up.
As for the rest, four have cases to be the Bills’ top choice. Advertisement Derrick Harmon, Oregon Harmon comes in as my top fit for the Bills because he instantly becomes the long-term answer at one-technique while having the instant ability to stay on the field to rush the passer on third downs. He can defend the run well, he holds the point of attack, he gets skinny and rushes up field.
He has multiple ways to win. Even with the size they covet at the position, he has enough versatility to play three-technique as well. At 313 pounds with an arm length of over 34 inches, Harmon, to me, is the no-doubt-about-it trade-up target if he becomes in range.
Walter Nolen, Mississippi Nolen appeared to be somewhat of an imperfect fit before Tuesday. But after Beane said they’d be open to having Carter play one-technique as his primary position, Nolen’s potential fit in Buffalo looks that much better. Nolen projects as someone rooted as a three-technique who can also play at one-technique next to Oliver in certain situations.
There’s also the potential for Nolen to grow into an every-down role next to Oliver. So if Carter can be the early-down one-technique, that helps the overall situation. The Bills are looking for game-wrecking types on the defensive line, and Nolen has the potential to be just that.
Kenneth Grant, Michigan When Beane discusses a two-and-a-half down defensive tackle, that’s Grant. He’s an incredibly gifted run defender, which the Bills have said makes players more valuable in their eyes, and he’s 330 pounds. However, it’s how well he moves that provides some reasons for optimism that, with development, he can give his NFL team some more consistent pass-rushing than he did at college.
Grant would be the instant answer as the long-term one-technique, but unlike Harmon and Nolen, he likely lacks the versatility to play both defensive tackle spots. Advertisement Tyleik Williams, Ohio State Williams might be in a tier below Harmon, Nolen and Grant, but his run defending ability keeps him in the conversation. The 329-pound Williams can withstand double teams and also dish aside his blocker to impact the backfield against the run.
The big debate with Williams is if the Bills believe he is a two-down player versus a potential two-and-a-half or three-down player down the line. If it’s the latter, he’s in the mix at No. 30 past the top targets.
Like Grant, Williams is likely a one-technique only. Of these four, Harmon, Nolen and Grant are logical targets in a move-up scenario, with Harmon and Nolen being the ones to most aggressively pursue. Though it seems likely all three are off the board before No.
30. 6. Sifting through the CBs for fits When it comes to what the Bills covet at boundary cornerback, there are very clear things they prefer.
On the field, they have gravitated toward instincts and being comfortable operating in zone. Ball production, whether in the form of interceptions or pass breakups, is key. Being an amazing run defender isn’t a necessity, but they need someone who is a willing run defender and shows a good baseline of tackling.
But there’s one skill that has become a bit more into focus following their playoff exit this year — the ability to play man occasionally on top of the Bills’ usual zone scheme. When talking about what would make a cornerback more valuable in their eyes, Beane alluded to someone who is scheme versatile, has speed and tackling ability, and can force turnovers. To help these primary attributes, the Bills have gone for a pretty specific body type with their cornerback investments.
Good height and above-average arm length can go a long way in their zone, especially to help break up pass attempts when they have some ground the cover. Advertisement As for who should be in play with their top pick, five stand out. The top two names are the least likely to be at No.
30 and would probably require a trade up, and the other three have a good chance of being available without a move-up. Here’s how those five stack up to the size of the average Bills cornerback investment. As for the on-field, how would each fit the Bills? Jahdae Barron, Texas Barron falls below every single size threshold the Bills have gone for in the past.
However, when you watch his games, his abilities more than justify veering from their usual prototype. Barron can play a little bit of everywhere for a defense, but most notably, he can play boundary cornerback well in the Bills’ zone-heavy defensive scheme. His instincts are excellent, and he can become an impact run defender and tackler on the edge.
For what it’s worth, Trent McDuffie, who the Bills loved in 2022, is almost a perfect match with Barron’s size. Will Johnson, Michigan Johnson’s instincts and ability to close on the ball are excellent, and his nine interceptions in college show a key trait the Bills look for. That awareness to make plays seems well-suited to their zone scheme.
Johnson has shown the ability to play man coverage in college as well, offering up the versatility the Bills could be looking for. On the downside, Johnson’s long speed may be lacking, which would hurt him most when the Bills play man, but he can do both. His arms are on the short side, but his almost 6-foot-2 frame helps mitigate that.
Trey Amos, Mississippi His game is what helps push him into consideration at No. 30. Amos would give them a diverse skill set that can fit well into their zone-heavy scheme, while also giving them the versatility to turn to man coverage when the game plan calls for it.
He’s got solid ball skills and is a willing tackler who can hold his own on the edge. He could be an instant starter for the Bills in 2025. Amos is as close to a match for their height, weight and arm length averages as you’ll find this year.
Advertisement Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky Hairston has great instincts to make a play on the ball. You can see the easy case for him to translate well into a zone-heavy scheme like the one the Bills use, giving them big play potential if those speed and instincts guess right on a play. However, his profile has some holes.
Hairston is much lighter (183 pounds) than what the Bills usually target. On top of that, the tackling and run support is an issue for him in a way that it isn’t for others. Azareye’h Thomas, Florida State Thomas has a ton of potential in a frame that zone defenses covet.
His movement abilities and fluidity for a player of his stature are impressive, and so is his run-defending potential. However, there are a couple of holes in his profile, which are the exact opposite of Hairston’s. Thomas’s ball skills are lacking a bit, even if he breaks up some passes.
In a zone defense that wants their cornerbacks to read the quarterback, anticipate and make a game-changing play, it could take a bit of projection for him to get there. 7. Potential non-DT or CB curveballs at No.
30 Because the Bills are picking so late, you never know what will happen with so many variables. Here are exceptions if available — even though it looks like they won’t be. Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College — He has the arm length (34 inches), production and complementary speedy skill set that would pair well opposite Greg Rousseau.
Ezeiruaku would be the starter in 2026 and beyond. Matthew Golden, WR, Texas — Of the potential first-round options, Golden is the one that makes the most sense because the Bills don’t have someone with his speed, and Golden can win at all three levels. He has the versatility to play multiple positions while rooted at Z receiver.
Tetairoa McMillan (Coleman), Emeka Egbuka (Shakir) and Luther Burden III (Shakir and Samuel) are too similar to what they have. Advertisement Mike Green, Edge, Marshall — Green has crazy college production and can win with speed off the edge. He falls into the maybe pile, though, because the Bills would need to feel comfortable with his off-field questions.
They generally avoid those situations in the draft. Green also has short arms that fall well below the Bills’ usual threshold. Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M — Stewart has an unreal athletic profile with the prototypical build the Bills generally go for.
The downside is that the lack of college production is very concerning and tends to be a no-go for the Bills. Stewart has only 4.5 sacks in three college seasons.
8. Trading up..
. Where’s the sweet spot? While Beane didn’t make it known how many first-round grades the Bills have on prospects, he did offer one thing. “Not 30,” Beane said succinctly, referring to when the Bills pick in the draft.
Depending on how the board falls, and with Beane’s penchant for moving up the board, it can never be ruled out. How much would it take to move up to each spot using only this year’s picks? Here’s a handy chart to keep in mind Thursday, using the Rich Hill Trade Value chart for pick values. It all depends on which players they’re moving up for, though giving up a second-round pick just to ensure one of them may be a non-starter for the Bills.
I could see them justifying sending out No. 62 and getting a third-round pick back for the right player, so that situation exists at No. 23 with the Packers.
However, I think the trade-up sweet spot resides with the Vikings at No. 24. From that point on, the Bills wouldn’t need to give up more than Day Three selections, which they have plenty of this year.
The Vikings are an attractive trade-up target because they have only four picks total in 2025 and could be more willing than other teams. But the Bills should only do so if someone from their top tier with a first-round grade remains on the board. Advertisement 9.
So then, how does it all stack up? Tier breaks on decision-making Whenever the Bills turn their pick in, I don’t think this year is an all-or-nothing for one position like we’ve seen in most other years. There appears to be enough depth at both defensive tackle and cornerback to believe they’ll get a potential starter with one of their picks in the second round, which turns this into a tiered discussion for how they might act. Tier 1 — Realistic trade-up candidate, or cross your fingers for No.
30 Of this group, I think the ideal trade-up targets reside with Harmon, Nolen, Barron, Johnson, Grant and Ezeiruaku. Harmon is the home run fit for needs and value, and if he, for some reason, were available at No. 23, would be worth the move-up price.
Despite his inexact fit to a one-technique role, Nolen might have the second-best case of the group after the intel on DeWayne Carter. I could see them doing a minor move-up for the rest. Tier 2 — Stick and pick at No.
30 or trade down 10. Okay, so where is all of this heading? Who has the best chance to become a Bills player on Thursday? With all the studying of the draft intel, the prospects available this year, the Bills’ needs, and usual values at positions, the most logical outcome leads to Amos being a strong contender as the team’s first-round pick without a move up. Every trait Beane talked about in a cornerback that would have more value to the team, Amos fits most into the description of, along with the prototypical build.
If the Bills moved up, any of Harmon, Nolen, Grant or Johnson would make sense, depending on who’s there. Golden will likely be gone, so that would remove one variable. The big unknown, though, is if the Bills feel confident in Williams’ ability to become a three-down asset, or in Beane’s words, to at least be a two-and-a-half down player.
If Williams checks that box, there is a strong case for him to be the choice. Advertisement However, because the depth at defensive tackle seems better in the second round than at cornerback, I ultimately land at the Bills selecting Amos with their pick at No. 30 if they stand pat.
Amos may even be teetering into the top-tier discussion due to his fit with the Bills scheme. But if the top tier is gone, Beane could always tap into his 2024 draft playbook and trade down. 11.
Thanks to the potential QB2 slide, the Bills could be in a power position. What could they get in a move down? The only thing we know about quarterbacks in 2025 is that Cam Ward is likely to be the first overall pick. Past that, it’s all up in the air as Shedeur Sanders’ projection has gotten worse by the day.
There remains a complete possibility that Sanders doesn’t get selected until some point in the early 20s, if not later. And if Sanders doesn’t get picked until the 20s, that pushes the rest of the quarterbacks down the board. There has recently been some intel that has pushes by Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough, and Jalen Milroe to be in that late-first to early-second-round category.
Once the quarterback run starts, it might become a domino effect. And with so many teams possibly needing one, the Bills at No. 30 could offer a chance to jump ahead of all of them to secure their favorite quarterback remaining at a much-reduced cost.
The trade-up team would also get the quarterback’s fifth-year option rather than settling for a standard four-year rookie deal as second-round picks. So, if the board doesn’t fall the way the Bills want it to with the players they’re targeting, they could become the very key to the quarterback destinations. It all comes down to opportunity cost.
If the Bills have someone available in that first tier, they should stick where they are and secure the player. But if all those players are gone, being the liaison for an early second-round team to take the all-important quarterback position is a path worth considering. Teams are always more aggressive in trading to find their potential franchise quarterback.
Advertisement It’s important to remember that when he trades down, Beane doesn’t like to move too far down the order. For that reason, I limited the search to dropping down to No. 40 at the latest.
The four teams to monitor for a quarterback are the Browns (No. 33), Giants (34), Raiders (37) and Saints (40). I included all of the picks below 30 as a trade-down guide, though for the quarterback-needy teams, that may only be a starting point, as the Bills, who would have the leverage, might come away with more.
If the Bills moved down, any tier-two players they considered at No. 30 would be the likely lean if available. And if they moved down, it likely means they’ve got two additional picks to play with on Day Two — the early second and a potential third-round selection to go with Nos.
56 and 62. That could certainly make for a fun Day 2. There you have it, my entire draft brain leading into the first round.
Coming up on Friday after Round 1, a recalibrated Part 2 of The Draft Files, taking a hard look at what the Bills could do from Rounds 2 through 7 after seeing what they did on Thursday. Until then, friends. (Top photo of Brandon Beane: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images).
