3 days Ago By Antonio J. Montalvan II
window.rapplerAds.displayAd( "middle-1" );window.
rapplerAds.displayAd( "mobile-middle-1" );It is akin to gambling on chance, because it IS gambling. Success is most unlikely.
Yet whenever a pope dies, the world loves it because it gives the impression of participating vicariously in the enigmatic process known as the conclave.But the real reason that fuels all chatter of predicting who will be the next pope is beyond the excitement of who will come out on the loggia: it is a multimillion dollar business.Gambling on papal conclaves was first documented in the 16th century, in the September 1503 conclave that elected Pope Pius III (Francesco Cardinal Piccolomini).
In the succeeding conclave in 1513 that elected Pope Leo X (Giovanni di Lorenzo Cardinal de Medici), the banking houses of Rome would receive wagers through betting slips that bank messengers would deliver to the betting public. Was the de Medici family of bankers involved? Some accounts say they were.A Roman saddle maker in 1590 said he made five times more money by successfully picking Giovanni Battista Cardinal Castagna who was elected as Pope Urban VII.
The reason is said to be cultural — Italians love lotteries. In the 19th century, large sums were said to change hands daily for the purchase of lottery tickets. The same continues to be true in present-day Mediterranean Europe where the much-awaited event of the year is the annual lottery.
It was from gambling that the term papabile (pope-able; singular; papabili plural) came to light. In today’s 21st century, it has become a lucrative million-dollar enterprise mostly based in the United Kingdom because these gambling companies are listed in the London Stock Exchange. Other countries such as Ireland and Italy offer online gambling on papal conclaves as well and to a lesser extent the United States.
During the 2013 papal conclave that elected Pope Francis, the major bookmakers — companies that accept bets — were Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and William Hill. The bets are placed on their respective websites. The odds offered are not just on potential candidates, but also on the incoming pope’s regnal name and the length of days of the conclave.
Those alone prove the point that the business is highly speculative. For it goes without saying — the main challenge about conclaves is that they cannot be predicted. And while these bookmakers float names of papabili that media would then report on, in reality there are no candidates.
Very few conclaves in the 20th century had a papabile elected as pope. The last one was Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger in 2005. The names of Popes John XXIII, John Paul I, John Paul II, and Francis never surfaced during the conclaves that elected them.
Jorge Mario Cardinal Bergoglio surfaced in 2013 because, it has been said, he was second placer in the 2005 conclave. But such information is merely in the realm of speculation because cardinal electors are under pain of excommunication if they leak information about the conclave. In fact, bookmakers placed him 40th on the list.
One question that was asked by a curious reader — does the Vatican earn income from the betting? Definitely not. In fact, there were popes in previous centuries that had imposed a penalty of excommunication on any who wagered bets on the outcome of a conclave. One such was Pope Gregory XIV (Nicolo Cardinal Sfondrato) in March 1591.
A warning: the fictionalized movie Conclave is not the standard. It is the real conclave that matters.Speculating on who becomes pope thrives because it is a lucrative global market.
On the morning of April 21 when mainstream media announced Pope Francis’ death, bookmakers swiftly buckled down to work. At the time of the somber news, there was no public wake yet for the mortal remains of Francis, yet initial lists of possible popes were hugging the headlines. The betting market had to be stirred early on by these bookmakers for the media to reecho.
The two are mutual friends.window.rapplerAds.
displayAd( "middle-2" );window.rapplerAds.displayAd( "mobile-middle-2" );The speed has been amplified by the wide use of social media, cryptocurrency wallets, and the popular culture on Francis, who roused the imagination of many about the papacy.
Nottingham University’s professor of economics and finance Leighton Vaughan Williams points out that the papal betting market “has grown substantially” since the previous conclaves of 2005 and 2013. For instance, one American website that accepts bets, Polymarket, is crypto-powered. Vaughan Williams, however, warns that papal betting has not developed into accurate forecasting.
One thing remains absolute: a conclave’s outcome would always be inconsistent with bookmaking predictions. Vaughan Williams speaks with authority — in 2015 he did a study of 500 years of conclave predictions.In other words, it is a market that has no solid information to trade on “except speculation, media narratives, and personal biases.
” The sports betting news organization, Covers, turned to AI’s ChatGPT for an answer on who becomes the next pope. The answer came: Peter Cardinal Erdō of Hungary. This is how ChatGPT reasoned: Erdō is a highly respected canon lawyer and theologian.
He earned doctorates in both theology and canon law and has served as a professor and author on Church law. That makes him particularly attractive for a Church that might be looking to shore up doctrinal discipline and clarity after years of internal debate and reform under Pope Francis.Erdō is often seen as doctrinally conservative, but not divisive.
This could appeal to cardinals who are looking for a stabilizing, centrist figure who can balance continuity and correction without sparking polarizing reactions.But ChatGPT is not a cardinal elector.On social media, I have seen the most foolish and preposterous answers on why Filipino netizens want Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle to become pope: “so that he can tell Filipino voters who to vote for in the May 13 election;” “so that China’s bullying of the Philippines will be noticed by the world.
” Notice the drift of these reasons: they both rely on disinformation.Those issues will never figure out in the discussions of cardinals in the ongoing daily general congregations and in the conclave set to begin on Wednesday, May 7. Many Filipinos miss out on the truth — the Catholic Church is universal, a worldwide community of believers in Jesus Christ marked by a diversity of persons, times and places.
Directions of universal and worldwide implications for the church will guide the conclave, not the parochial minutiae of Philippine politics.Here’s one way to trust the conclave: read from verifiable media. And do not hope for Tagle to become pope — that is not prayer but wishful thinking that has no basis in truth.
We will never know if he is elected pope until the name is announced from the loggia that we have a pope.Eminentissimum ac Reverendissimum Dominum, Dominum Aloysius Antonius Cardinalis Tagle. Watch out for the first name.
If it sounds other than that, it won’t be Tagle. If the cardinal’s first name in Latin is Petrus, hold your breath because there will be three: Turkson of Ghana, Erdō of Hungary, or Parolin of Italy. But those are the only names we know because of bookmakers’ lists.
There are 135 cardinal electors, each one of whom can become pope. It can be Soane Patita Paini Cardinal Mafi of Tonga in the Pacific, or Patrick Cardinal D’Rozario of Dhaka, Bangladesh.Speculation and betting are not the way.
Neither is praying based on misinformation or disinformation. – Rappler.com.
