2 weeks Ago
LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers locked up the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, but their reward is less than ideal. L.
A. will take on Anthony Edwards and the No. 6-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs.
A Western Conference Finals team last season, Minnesota won on the final day of the regular season to avoid the play-in tournament in the West. Now, the Timberwolves are aiming to pull off an upset in what should be an extremely exciting first-round series. Can the Lakers' small-ball lineup force Rudy Gobert off the floor? Will Doncic show that he can take yet another team to the NBA Finals? Or, is this Edwards’ chance to announce himself as one of the faces of the NBA for years to come? Oddsmakers have the Lakers favored in this series, but it figures to be a great matchup since Minnesota finished the regular season with the fourth-best net rating in the NBA.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, trends to watch from these teams, and my prediction for this first-round series. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Timberwolves vs.
Lakers Series Odds Timberwolves: +155 Lakers: -190 Timberwolves vs. Lakers Correct Score Odds Lakers in 7: +350 Lakers in 5: +400 Timberwolves in 6: +475 Lakers in 6: +500 Timberwolves in 7: +650 Lakers in 4: +700 Timberwolves in 5: +1100 Timberwolves in 4: +1900 Timberwolves vs. Lakers Trends to Watch The Timberwolves fall into an exclusive group this season, as they are one of the eight best teams in net rating for the entire campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, a team from the top eight in net rating has won the title every year: Minnesota comes into the playoffs on a high note, as it was fifth in net rating after the All-Star break, posting an 18-8 record. If there are a few trends to watch in this series, one is that the Wolves do not cover the spread well when favored at home. Minnesota is just 14-22 against the spread as a home favorite this season.
These teams split their season series, but it’s worth noting that Minnesota was 44-25 in the 69 games that Julius Randle played in and just 5-8 without him. Getting home court was huge for the Lakers in the playoffs, as they are one of the best home teams in the NBA this season: Los Angeles is 31-10 straight up at home this season The Lakers are also an impressive 21-11 against the spread when favored at home Since adding Doncic, the Lakers have thrived, posting an 18-10 record in the 28 games that he appeared in. Los Angeles was also 18-12 after the All-Star break, although it ranked just 15th in the NBA in net rating.
There was a month-long trend where the Lakers had the No. 1 defense in the NBA, but they ended up just 17th in the league in defensive rating for the season (and after the All-Star break). Los Angeles did win the lone matchup between these teams with Doncic in action.
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Prediction and Pick I really think there is a lot of value in taking the Timberwolves to win this series in six games (+475 at DraftKings), but ultimately, I’m not sure Chris Finch will make the adjustment that the Wolves may need to win this series. Stylistically, the Lakers want to play small with Jarred Vanderbilt or Rui Hachimura as the de facto center.
That would make it tough for the Wolves to play Rudy Gobert, and they’d likely need to go small with Naz Reid or Julius Randle as the primary center against those groups. The key for the Lakers is that they’re able to stagger James, Doncic, and Austin Reaves, leaving them with an offensive hub on the floor at all times. The same can’t be said for the Wolves, who may struggle in the non-Anthony Edwards minutes to play at a high level on the offensive end.
Los Angeles is going to hunt Gobert when he’s on the floor, and this series may be a chess match to see if J.J. Redick will cave and play more Jaxson Hayes or if Chris Finch will go small and sit Gobert.
I am nervous about Gobert getting played off the floor (we’ve seen it happen before), because that means the Lakers are playing their style and forcing the Wolves to adjust. Minnesota still had a really impressive season despite the KAT trade potentially causing a slow start. The No.
4 team in net rating, Minnesota, has some value in the futures market. It’s just hard to bet against Doncic and James – two of the game’s greatest minds – especially when Doncic took a potentially worse supporting cast to the Finals last season and exposed this Minnesota defense in the process. Edwards has to be the best player in the series by a pretty wide margin for the Wolves to win.
I’m not sold on that being what’s going to happen, especially against a Lakers team that has been utterly dominant at home all season long. Best Bet: Lakers to win the series (-190 at DraftKings) Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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