1 week Ago By Ben Knight
In the next two weeks, Canadian and Australian voters will go to the polls. In both elections, the opposition conservative parties were originally favoured to win. No longer.
Both Canada's Conservatives — led by Pierre Poilievre — and Peter Dutton's Liberals have seen stunning collapses in their polling numbers that now have them placed behind the centre-left incumbents. "It's really interesting having these two elections running in parallel," said Ben Wellings, a senior lecturer in politics at Melbourne's Monash University. Catch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on and Canada's Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre (left) and Australia's Peter Dutton have seen their election chances eroded in recent polls.
"Both Poilievre and Dutton are dropping in the polls. And I do think that this is something to do with the problem that Donald Trump is posing for these centre-right candidates," he said. The drop is clearly visible in the polls in both countries.
In Australia, the Coalition began a gradual climb in the polls in 2023. By late last year, it had passed Labor in popularity, and seemed primed to continue its rise. But the numbers — just after Mr Trump's inauguration and as the US president launched his trade war against America's allies.
Polls show Labor's vote, in red, improving dramatically on a two-party preferred basis. In Canada, for the conservatives — from a 20-point lead to a six-point deficit behind the ruling centre-left Canadian Liberal Party. Polling in Canada shows falling support for Conservatives and a rise for the encumbent Liberals.
Until then, the Conservatives had been on track to trounce the Liberals, who were deeply unpopular after nine years in government. But prime minister Justin Trudeau's defiant response to Mr Trump's trade war, and talk of making Canada the "51st state" of the USA, galvanised Canadians. After Mr Trudeau stood aside last month, new Prime Minister Mark Carney kept up the tough talk against Mr Trump, and support for the Liberals continued to rise.
Academic Clayton Chin says the tone of the election campaign in Canada has changed. "When you start questioning sovereignty, when you start questioning the validity of the existence of a state, that completely changed the tone of the election," said Clayton Chin, a Canadian-Australian associate professor in political theory at Melbourne University. In February, Australian Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was criticised for over his plan to turn Gaza into a real estate development.
And he named senator Jacinta Price as his shadow minister for government efficiency, a move echoing Mr Trump's appointment of Elon Musk to the US's new Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. The Trump link was strengthened when Senator Price , which she dismissed as a "joke". "Both [conservative leaders] are obviously dealing with parties that have a variety of types of figures in them, and some of those figures are very sympathetic to Trump's politics and have actual and continuing ties to the Trump administration," Dr Chin said.
Political polling has been around as long as democracy itself and its influence on the election cycle is undeniable, but insiders say it’s never been more challenging to get right. Antony Green, the ABC's chief election analyst, said there were parallels between Mr Trump's impact on the Canadian and Australian conservative campaigns, but they "shouldn't be overstated". "The Coalition has had a boost with those populist-type stands which have been popular in America, but in the last month or two, the Liberal Party — which is a more centrist party in Australia — has sort of walked back from those positions," he said.
"The impact of Donald Trump on Canada is much more visceral. They've had their independence virtually threatened by becoming the 51st state. The tariffs that have been imposed are much higher than on Australia.
ABC chief election analyst Antony Green says Donald Trump's impact has been more strongly felt in Canada. "But there are parallels here. Most conservative parties around the world have been attracted by some of the populist trends in American politics, which have proved popular.
The anti-Trump sentiment in Australia is reflected in opinion polling. Last week, a Resolve Monitor poll published in Nine newspapers reported 35 per cent of undecided voters were less likely to back Mr Dutton because of changes wrought by Mr Trump, compared to 24 per cent for Anthony Albanese. Read more about the federal election: Want even more? A Lowy Institute poll published this weekend showed almost That has been reflected in responses to the ABC's Your Say project throughout the campaign, with Australia's relationship to the Trump administration consistently appearing among the top concerns.
I've been a Liberal voter the majority of my life, but the Trump-like right wing movement in the Liberal party has me terrified. — I want a leader who will stand with Canada against the USA if required — Why doesn't Albanese withdraw his invitation to Trump to visit Australia and state that we stand with Canada? — Stand up to Trump. Take the lead from Canada.
— Australia and the federal govt needs to call a spade a spade — as Canada has done- and articulate that America is no longer a reliable partner. — I don't want us, in line with Canada's stance, to cave in or kowtow to his demands. — I want the Government and the Opposition to start to criticise Donald Trump and to stand up to him the same as Canada is doing.
— We need a leader that is going to stand up to Trump and put Australia first. — Dr Chin said the depth of feeling in Canada and Australia came from the same place — both countries' decades of closeness to the United States. "There's a real strong sense of the betrayal of friends," he said.
What do you need to know before you vote in the upcoming federal election? What would you ask the candidates? Have Your Say. "That sense that, 'We accepted your leadership, we supported it, even against some moral, political, or ethical concerns around certain types of things. And yet, this is where it's landed us.
'" Of course, polls can be wrong, and election day can throw up big surprises. But in Canada, at least, a post-mortem of the Conservative campaign has already begun. "Blowing a 25-point lead and being like 10 points down is campaign malpractice at the highest level," said Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke, in a blistering attack on his own party's performance.
Antony Green said the Canadian polls had seen a "dramatic turnaround". "You just do not get normal turnarounds like that without major external shocks. And that major external shock has been Donald Trump.
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