1 day Ago By Tribune News Service
By Ben Roberts, Lexington Herald-LeaderLEXINGTON, Ky. — The 2025 Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and the Lexington Herald-Leader has asked horse racing experts around the country for their top handicapping picks going into the big race.Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the favorite, with Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman next on the morning line, and Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square, Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez and Japanese star Luxor Cafe among the other top contenders.
Here’s a look at the predictions from our panel, which included some long-shot bets.John ClayHerald-Leader— Win: Journalism— Place: Sovereignty— Show: Sandman— Comment: We need outstanding Journalism now more than ever.Ben RobertsHerald-Leader— Win: Sovereignty— Place: Journalism— Show: Publisher— Comment: Like the running style, like the progression, like the connections and think Sovereignty is sitting on the biggest race of his career this weekend.
Cameron DrummondHerald-Leader— Win: East Avenue— Place: Sandman— Show: Tiztastic— Comment: East Avenue is part of a hot early pace, and the long-shot bet finally shows some consistency with a big effort to hold off late-running Sandman and Tiztastic, with the top-three finishers all coming from the outside of the 20-horse field.Caroline MakauskasHerald-Leader— Win: Sandman— Place: Journalism— Show: Luxor Cafe— Comment: No stranger to Churchill Downs, Sandman raced three times at the track as a 2-year-old and finished third in the Grade 3 Street Sense back in October. The closer is hitting his stride, most recently winning the Arkansas Derby by 2 1/2 lengths over fellow Run for the Roses contender Publisher on March 29.
Frank AngstBloodHorse— Win: Journalism— Place: Sovereignty— Show: Grande— Comment: Journalism is undefeated in two-turn races and has improved in each of his career efforts. In winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last out, he overcame some trouble in the backstretch. That toughness should come in handy in the Kentucky Derby.
His breeding, Curlin—Mopotism, by Uncle Mo, suggests 1 1/4 miles will be in his wheelhouse, and I look for him to take another step forward Saturday.Rick BozichWDRB— Win: Sovereignty— Place: Burnham Square— Show: Sandman— Comment: There is a reason Bill Mott has been in a fantastic mood. He’s got a thunderous colt.
Steve BykAt the Races— Win: Journalism— Place: Burnham Square— Show: Baeza— Comment: Journalism arrives for Derby as the most imposing favorite in several years, possessing a heady combination of speed and power with a style that fits the anticipated race flow. Barring unforeseen trouble, he’ll win handily.John CherwaLos Angeles Times— Win: Journalism— Place: Rodriguez— Show: Sandman— Comment: Journalism proves he’s the real deal by biding his time to the quarter pole, where Umberto Rispoli starts to take aim at the front-running Rodriguez.
He gets him a few strides from the wire to win and start the Triple Crown talk.Ed DeRosaHorse Racing Nation— Win: Journalism— Place: Chunk of Gold— Show: Baeza— Comment: There are two kinds of favorites in the Kentucky Derby: Default favorites, in that someone has to be favored, and deserving favorites, in that this horse has demonstrated a legit claim to the best of his generation. Journalism is in the latter camp, which is why I’m so bullish on his chances on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
His San Felipe Stakes victory was the best prep performance of the year, and he overcame trouble to win the Santa Anita Derby. Because I’m so heavy on the favorite here, I’m using long shot Chunk of Gold liberally in my trifecta wagers.Joe DrapeNew York Times— Win: Journalism— Place: Sovereignty— Show: Luxor Cafe— Comment: What a great name?Bill FinleyNational turf writer— Win: Sandman— Place: Burnham Square— Show: Journalism— Comment: He took a step backward in the Rebel but rebounded with an impressive score in the Arkansas Derby.
Has the right running style to win.Jason FrakesCourier Journal— Win: Journalism— Place: Rodriguez— Show: Baeza— Comment: I hate picking the favorite, but it’s hard to go against Journalism when you’ve worked in the newspaper business for 30 years.Kaitlin FreeChurchill Downs— Win: Journalism— Place: Luxor Cafe— Show: Sovereignty— Comment: Seems peerless in this race, standing alone numbers and figures wise.
Ability to stop and start will be key.Neil GreenbergWashington Post— Win: Rodriguez— Place: Luxor Cafe— Show: Tiztastic— Comment: Rodriguez’s early speed and pedigree, which includes Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and versatile sire Into Mischief, gives him the rare blend of speed, stamina and toughness needed to prevail in the Run for the Roses.David GreningDaily Racing Form— Win: Journalism— Place: Sovereignty— Show: Burnham Square— Comment: Despite racing in short fields, Journalism can be placed where he needs to be and showed in the Santa Anita Derby he is athletic enough to get out of trouble.
Has looked sensational in the mornings at Churchill.Steve HaskinNational turf writer— Win: Sovereignty— Place: Journalism— Show: Grande— Comment: I can’t separate the top two so going for the bigger price, but watch out for Grande — my price horse. Luxor Cafe, Chunk of Gold, Final Gambit and American Promise the bombs.
Brooks HoltonCourier Journal— Win: Journalism— Place: Sandman— Show: Rodriguez— Comment: Bob Baffert is back, and my gut tells me he’ll at least get on the board. Rodriguez sets the pace, then Journalism and Sandman duel down the stretch.Byron KingBloodHorse— Win: Sovereignty— Place: Journalism— Show: Luxor Cafe— Comment: Sovereignty is a powerful late finisher who should relish the mile and a quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby.
Tim LaydenNBC Sports— Win: Journalism— Place: Sandman— Show: Sovereignty— Comment: Journalism is proven and professional, and should like both his post position and the pace up front. Also: You gotta love the name.Tom LeachKeeneland— Win: Journalism— Place: Citizen Bull— Show: Burnham Square— Comment: I was all set to pick against Journalism until he worked his way out of a traffic jam on the final turn of the Santa Anita Derby and ran down a very good horse who was loose on an easy lead.
I love horses who have Derby winner-caliber talent but also show the ability to handle adversity.Ray PaulickThe Paulick Report— Win: Publisher— Place: Journalism— Show: Sovereignty— Comment: The last time a maiden (a horse that has never won a race) won the Kentucky Derby was Brokers Tip in 1933, but Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher has improved with every start and is sitting on a big effort to give Steve Asmussen his first victory in the Run for the Roses.Mike PennaHorse Racing Radio Network— Win: Journalism— Place: Sovereignty— Show: Burnham Square— Comment: Journalism has proven himself to be the best of his crop.
A clean trip and he is probably the winner, but late-running Sovereignty and Burnham Square could make things interesting in the late stages.Jennie ReesKentucky HBPA— Win: Journalism— Place: Sovereignty— Show: Tiztastic— Comment: This is not a hunch bet; I’m just tired of unsuccessfully trying to beat California horses that are favored. Journalism is the fastest horse, has a good post and running style to stay out of trouble and is bred to go long.
Comparative long shot (besides Tiztastic at 20-1) would be Burnham Square (12-1) getting another rail-skimming ride from Brian Hernandez Jr.Kenny RiceNBC Sports— Win: Journalism— Place: Sandman— Show: Tiztastic— Comment: Trainer Michael McCarthy shines in his biggest moment.Nicole RussoDaily Racing Form— Win: Burnham Square— Place: Journalism— Show: Sandman— Comment: Blue Grass winner Burnham Square appears to be absolutely thriving in his training and peaking at the right time, a key part of the Kentucky Derby alchemy.
Tim WilkinNational turf writer— Win: Sovereignty— Place: Journalism— Show: Rodriguez— Comment: Expect to see Sovereignty’s long stride to eat up ground quickly in the Churchill Downs stretch and overtake Journalism, who had taken the lead after disposing of pace survivor Rodriguez. Should be another nail biter in America’s most famous horse race.____.
