Wisconsin soybean farmers could be hit hard as Trump fights with their biggest customers

CLINTON — Farmer Matt Rehberg knows the last thing he should be doing is making rash decisions. In the next few weeks, Rehberg will be planting about 1,000 acres of corn, slightly fewer acres of soybeans and a handful of acres of wheat on farmland a few miles north of the Wisconsin-Illinois border. A possible upending of the $24.

6 billion soybean export market isn’t changing what’s going into the ground this spring. “As a farmer, we’re paying attention, we’re watching it. You get inundated with news and reports back on this every day, and it goes either direction,” said Rehberg, who is also the vice president of the Wisconsin Soybean Association.



“You just kind of finally have to take a breath, step back and go, ‘All right, we need to do our job.’ At the end of the day, we’ve got to plant and grow a crop and sort it out as we can.” Matt Rehberg, vice president of Wisconsin Soybean Association, will be planting about 1,000 acres of corn and slightly fewer acres of soybeans this spring on his farm in Clinton.

A trade war with China could upend his business, but it’s too late to change course on planting now. Soybean farmers aren’t the only ones keeping a wary eye on Trump’s tariffs and a potential trade war with China. But they may hit soybean farmers especially hard.

The crop already had lost about half its value in the last two years because of increasing global supply and depressed U.S. demand, said Tanner Johnson, a Barron County farmer who sits on the boards of both the Wisconsin Soybean and the American Soybean associations.

Brazil, the world’s leading producer of soybeans , is upping its stake in the soybean industry as it razes its rainforests to do it, Johnson said. The country already accounts for 40% of the soybean market, with 169 million metric tons of crops. The U.

S. is second with 118.8 million tons , or about 28% of the crop, according to U.

S. Department of Agriculture data. Trump, meanwhile, is once again picking a fight with China, soybean farmers’ No.

1 customer, after a tariff war in China during Trump’s first administration cut global demand for American soybeans. Before 2018, China was importing a third of America’s soybeans, which are a significant ingredient in livestock feed. Since then, it’s dropped to a quarter, Johnson said.

China had sourced the majority of its soybeans from the United States throughout the late 2000s and early 2010s, even as Brazil’s share grew. In 2017, Brazil overtook U.S.

exports. In that time, Brazil’s soybean exports to China have grown by about 62.5% , though demand from China still drives the U.

S. export market. “There’s no replacing China as a customer.

They are the world’s biggest soybean customer,” Johnson said. “We, farmers ourselves, went over there for 20-plus years to develop that market ourselves. So there’s some sentimental value in this one.

” Wisconsin farmers fault Trump on vow to deport immigrants, but some don’t believe he’d do it Wisconsin soybean growers have responded to lower market demand by planting fewer acres this season, compared to last year. The USDA estimates Wisconsin farmers are planting 250,000 fewer acres of soybeans, a decrease of about 11.6%.

Nationally, soybean growers across the U.S. were planting 4% fewer acres .

Acreage for corn, dry hay, oats and winter wheat are all expected to increase across the state. Corn will make up the majority of that acreage, with growth of 200,000 acres. Part of the challenge for farmers is the “whipsaw” of federal tariff changes, said Will Fulwider, regional crops educator for Dane County’s UW Extension.

The first months of the second Trump administration have been a barrage of on-again, off-again tariffs, with import tax rates substantially higher than those seen in his first administration. Farmers, who decide what to plant months in advance, can’t easily pivot in response to the whims of an environment in constant flux. Farmers are “not traders.

The traders on the market, they’re able to sell and buy at the click of a button. Once (farmers) put their crops in the ground, they can’t switch anything,” Fulwider said. “How do you make a decision when it’s constantly shifting under your feet as to what it could end up looking like?” For decades, the United States has been seen as a reliable and steady trading partner, allowing farmers and other producers to build relationships.

If that viewpoint changes, foreign purchasers might look elsewhere. And retaliatory tariffs levied by the United States’ trading partners in response to Trump’s import taxes might dent demand for U.S.

products. Clinton-area farmer Matt Rehberg says farmers are paying attention to President Donald Trump’s latest rounds of tariffs but many are staying the course. “At the end of the day, we’ve got to plant and grow a crop and sort it out as we can.

” Tariffs currently in effect are a cumulative 145% on China, with carve-outs for smartphones and laptops; 25% on all imported steel and aluminum; a 25% tariff on any country that purchases Venezuelan oil; and a 10% import tax on all imported goods. Tariffs on temporary pause include a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, at least for goods outlined in the nations’ trade agreement; a 25% tariff on any imported cars or car parts; and reciprocal tariffs on most other countries. The tariff situation is ever evolving: On Tuesday, Trump hinted that tariffs on China could come down “substantially” but not to zero , with no additional details; on Wednesday, a dozen states sued Trump over his tariff strategy that seemed to be based on his personal whims rather than legal authority.

During Trump’s first term, he levied targeted tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines and imported steel and aluminum. As a result, China slapped retaliatory tariffs on U.S.

soybeans, leaving those growers to shoulder the brunt of $27 billion in reduced agriculture exports . A 2020 agreement between the two countries allowed soybean exports to rebound, but not nearly to the levels they once were. Trump’s tariffs also prompted other countries to implement retaliatory tariffs on U.

S. goods, which pushed the federal government to make up for farmers’ losses. Direct aid to farmers nearly tripled between 2017 and 2020, to $32.

5 billion. U.S.

Championship Cheese Contest opens amid federal grant funding freezes and tariffs In the next round of gamesmanship over tariffs and a trade war, not all farmers will be affected equally. It’ll largely depend on who’s planting what, and how much. Farmers with larger quantities of soybeans would be some of the hardest hit, Fulwider said.

At this point, it’s a crop that barely breaks even, despite its costs being lower than other crops because there are fewer inputs like fertilizer and pesticides needed. Any additional decreases in demand or price could dent paychecks further. “That could make it unprofitable, period,” Johnson said.

Corn is a more stable crop, but there are trade-offs there, too: Higher reserves of corn may push commodity prices lower, which were already down before the threat of tariffs. Dairy is a bit more insulated from tariffs than other commodity crops, as much more of its product is sold regionally, Fulwider said. Wisconsin still exports about $518 million in dairy products annually.

Canada is the largest customer, at $117 million. China is next, with $96 million in product sold. Dairy accounts for 13% of all Wisconsin exports.

This year’s spring plantings were set in stone months ago. Many farmers already have put in their orders for their “inputs” — whether that be potash or other pesticides. Those early orders could insulate farmers, for now.

Different decisions may need to be made this fall, though, if the Trump administration doesn’t come to a resolution with tariffs and a trade war before then. If prices are still high, farmers may decide to pull back on their purchases of fertilizer and pesticides, which in turn would impact crop yields for the following year, Fulwider said. The near-term impacts farmers are likely to see are in the overhead aspects of running their farms, like upgrading and repairing equipment, Fulwider said.

Rehberg knows many fellow farmers who were already tightening their belts with lower commodity prices. If Trump can strike deals that move more U.S.

soybeans internationally — and put more money in farmers’ pockets — Johnson will applaud the administration. “Right now, cash flow is king, and that’s what’s keeping our doors open,” he said. Cutting the soybean crop entirely is not a long-term solution for farmers.

Soybean growers could be some of the hardest hit because of Trump’s top trade war adversary, China, which alone purchases a quarter of all U.S.-grown soybeans.

Crops like Rehberg’s at his Meadowdale Farm work best in rotations: He’s planning to plant corn in the exact same spot he harvested soybeans from last fall. The crops thrive better in dirt that has a degree of agricultural diversity to it. Plant too much corn, for too many years, and the plant will deplete it of the minerals it needs.

If prices or demand rebounds, farmers who ditched or neglected their equipment may find themselves making pricey purchases or repairs. “It could change tomorrow. It could change within a week, and then all of a sudden, you end up chasing your tail on it,” Rehberg said.

“Most farms, ourselves included, you end up just having to stay the course and weather the storm.” This story has been updated to reflect new changes to U.S.

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