Canadian election on knife edge as nation split hours before voting opens

As Canada prepares for a pivotal election , it's a neck-and-neck race between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative titan Pierre Polievre, according to a new poll. Daily Express US and The Democracy Institute (DI) conducted a survey asking participants who they wanted to win , revealing a split vote - 41 percent for conservatives, and 41 percent for liberals in the National Popular Vote. The nation's other parties, including the New Democratic Party, Bloc Québécois, and the Green Party, also garnered some support, preventing a majority among the leading parties.

The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 2,160 likely Canadian voters was conducted by the DI polling unit from April 22 through April 24, 2025. The turnout model is 71 percent. Recent polls have shown conservatives in the lead, but voters also perceive Carney and his party as effective in standing up to Trump.



When asked if Canada is currently heading in the right or wrong direction, 66 percent responded "wrong direction." In a poll of election day voters - as opposed to early voters - 43% said they would vote Conservative compared to 40% for the Liberals. However, 47% believe the Liberal Party will win the election, with 43% saying the Conservatives will.

The next nearest is the New Democratic Party (NDP), though those polled place the party well behind on just 5%. With early voters, Liberals seem to dominate. According to DI's poll, 43% will vote Liberal compared to 32% voting Conservative.

Only 31 percent believed the country was headed in the right direction. Canadians are seething over Donald Trump 's persistent challenges to their nation's sovereignty, triggering a surge of patriotism that has given the Liberals a lift in the polls. As they prepare to vote, this is just one of many issues on voters' minds.

On March 23, Prime Minister Carney of Canada requested the Governor General to dissolve Parliament, triggering an unexpected election scheduled for Monday, April 28. The upcoming vote will decide who takes control: the Liberal Party, led by Carney, or the Conservatives, under the leadership of Poilievre. Key issues for Canadians include the rising cost of living, energy, climate change , tax cuts, defense spending, and housing.

When asked which party best aligns with their values, 38 percent chose the Conservative Party, while 31 percent favored the Liberal Party. The New Democratic Party was the choice of 15 percent, and 5 percent selected the Bloc Québécois. Approximately 43 percent also felt that Carney would be most effective in standing up to Trump, while 37 percent believed Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party could handle the task.

In a stunning turn of events, the Liberals and Carney were teetering on the edge of a catastrophic defeat in Monday's election—until the American president launched an offensive against Canada's economy and even its sovereignty, suggesting it become the 51st state. Trump's attack on Canada has unleashed a wave of indignation among Canadians and sparked a surge of national pride that has astonishingly reversed the Liberals' fortunes, transforming the narrative of the election. "Trump has immersed himself into our lives and has defined the ballot question," remarked former Quebec Premier Jean Charest.

"What Trump has done is shed light on who we are," he further explained. Poilievre had sought to frame the election as a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose approval ratings dipped amid rising food and housing costs and high immigration rates during the latter part of his decade-long leadership. Yet, following Trump's assault and Trudeau's subsequent resignation, Carney, with his experience as a central banker twice over, stepped up as the new leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister.

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