2 weeks Ago
This could be it. The last time Mitch Marner plays in the postseason for the Maple Leafs. That’s not hyperbole, not with Marner playing without a contract beyond this season and seemingly unsure about signing one.
This was always going to be a spotlight postseason for Marner. The fact he has been unwilling to sign an extension, which led the front office to request that he lift his no-movement clause in a trade for Mikko Rantanen, has only made the spotlight brighter. Advertisement These playoffs have the potential to alter not only the course of Marner’s career, but the course of the Leafs along with it.
They could be the start of something new, something richer (a Stanley Cup?) for both player and team, or the end of the line. Ghosts of playoff past Maybe it’s leftover residue from the contentious contract talks in 2019. Maybe it’s the style of game that he plays.
Maybe it’s the homegrown, hometown factor. Whatever the reason, it has always felt like Marner has drawn more heat, a lot more heat even, for his subpar playoff performances than his fellow co-stars. Was that fair? Let’s zoom in on the production of the stars in the last four postseasons — the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 playoffs — since that’s when expectations for the Leafs of this era shifted.
If we compare the per-game point production of Marner, Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares in those playoffs to the regular seasons that came before, well, Marner’s drop-off indeed sticks out the most. What’s also notable is how similar things look for Matthews and even Tavares, both of whom have drawn larger paycheques than Marner. If we look simply at goal production, Matthews has had the biggest drop-off of the four, which kind of makes sense with how prodigious a scorer he’s been in the regular season.
But it also gives credence to the idea that Marner has perhaps drawn an overly large share of blame for the Leafs’ playoff failures over the years. (Note: Nylander is actually scoring more.) Marner has also been the team’s second-best (at times, best) player in recent years and one of the top right wingers in hockey.
Expectations are simply higher for him. The scrutiny follows from that. Matthews has had more big moments and games in recent postseasons than Marner, not a lot of them certainly, but enough to pop out.
One example: Matthews having a direct hand in all three goals in a Game 2 win over the Boston Bruins last spring; he scored one and set up two more directly. Another example: Matthews scoring two third-period goals to help the Leafs come back and beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of the 2023 first round. Marner has been loudly quiet late in some of those series over the years, too, at points when the Leafs needed more from him (and his star teammates): Marner often hasn’t resembled the same player in the postseason, not the puck-dominant play-making wizard he’s been in the regular season.
One part of the problem: The power play, where stars such as Marner can and should be able to add to their point totals and, of course, help their teams. Year after year, the power play has been a playoff sinkhole for the Leafs and Marner. He didn’t register a single point on the power play in last year’s playoffs (which saw him produce only three points overall in seven games).
In 57 career playoff games, mind you, he has scored one power-play goal. And that’s the other part of the playoff story with Marner: He has largely failed to be a scoring threat. Though playmaking is obviously the strength of his game, and that’s absolutely been lacking in the postseason, Marner tends to score more than he gets credit for, at least in the regular season.
Advertisement It might surprise you to learn that Marner has scored the same number of goals (111) over the last four regular seasons as Tavares — but in 19 fewer games. Yet in the playoffs, Marner has typically stopped being that guy. Marner has scored only 11 goals in those 57 playoff games (which amounts to 16 per 82 games) and only six in his last 37 outings.
His one goal in the 2024 playoffs came in the third period of Game 4 when the Leafs were down 3-0. Part of why the Leafs didn’t score enough in past playoffs is that Marner didn’t score enough. Is that about the power play? Is that about Marner not being the type to score “playoff-style” goals? This was Marner’s shot map in last year’s postseason: It’s not about Marner shooting less: He’s actually averaged almost exactly the same number of shots per game in the playoffs (2.
54) as in the regular season (2.53). What needs to change? 1.
The power play This could be the secret sauce for Marner in these playoffs. And something is very different about his role on the power play this season — namely, his gig at the top of the Leafs’ five-forward first unit. Marner’s limitations as a shooter made him an awkward fit on the PP flanks over the years, and that probably didn’t help with spacing for Matthews, Nylander or Tavares.
Even his placement last season, frequently down around the goal line, didn’t totally work, especially in the playoffs. Marner, on the other hand, looked as comfortable as ever playing QB up top this season. He produced over eight points per 60 minutes on the power play, the second-best mark of his career.
(He managed nearly nine points per 60 as a sophomore in the NHL, when he linked up with James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri on a dangerous 1B unit.) Marner has never had a better power-play assist rate in his career than this season (6.7 assists per 60).
His shot rate, on the other hand, was the lowest it has been in the NHL — by far (just seven shots per 60). When he is shooting these days, it’s not even necessarily to score but to create opportunities for others, including net-front hunter Matthew Knies. Advertisement In short, the power play is better set up now for Marner to thrive.
2. A more legitimate connection with Matthews For as dominant as they’ve been together in the regular season, Marner and Matthews haven’t clicked nearly as much in the postseason over the years. Consider that over those last four postseasons, Marner has assisted on four — total — Matthews goals at five-on-five.
And that’s in 30 games. (Matthews has scored eight in that time.) But there’s more to that story.
Marner and Matthews haven’t always played together in the playoffs. Last year, for example, they were hardly together at all: Just under 15 minutes at five-on-five. Marner played the other 85 without Matthews, who was injured throughout the series.
Marner spent a good chunk of the seven games on a line with Tavares and the rest of it, with Matthews out, alongside Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. When they have rolled together over the years in the postseason, Matthews and Marner have had a rotating cast of left wingers who struggled and/or were ill fits for the role. In the 2023 playoffs, for instance, their most frequent left winger was Calle Järnkrok.
Underlying numbers for that trio were actually outstanding, but Järnkrok has real offensive limitations. He was one of three wingers to join the two stars in the second round against Florida. All of which is to say that things are mighty different this year.
The star duo has an emerging power winger in Knies by their side. Knies has already shown that he can elevate his game in the postseason. What does the 2.
0 version of Knies look like this spring? And how might he help both Marner and Matthews? Knies scored 22 five-on-five goals during the regular season. Twelve of them were set up in some way by Marner. (Matthews assisted on 12 as well, with a team-leading eight primary assists.
) Better power play. Better help. The Leafs also, clearly, need Marner to feel “free” enough to be Marner, to play without the tension that’s been evident in his game in past postseasons.
To not be tentative with the puck and/or unwilling to attack. To act like what he is: One of the best players in the game. Advertisement Can he do that with everything else at stake? The stakes How it all goes could very well determine whether Marner sticks around beyond this season with the only NHL team he’s ever known.
If he plays great, and the Leafs finally go on a deep run and maybe even win the franchise’s first Cup in decades, he may decide that he would like to be a lifetime Leaf, after all. In which case, he would almost certainly draw the biggest contract in franchise history, with a cap hit that exceeds even Matthews’ at $13.25 million.
He would be on the path to becoming the team’s all-time leading scorer, with an eventual banner in the rafters and a place on Legends’ Row. If it doesn’t go well, and the lion’s share of the blame again goes his way, Marner may decide he’s had enough. That he would prefer to spend the rest of his career elsewhere, perhaps in a place with a lot less scrutiny.
So yeah, a lot is riding on these playoffs for Marner — and for the Leafs. It should be a fascinating ride. — Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, NHL EDGE, and Hockey Reference (Top photo by Chris Tanouye/Getty Images).
