2 weeks Ago
The Masters was a hit for the SI Golf Betting Panel with SI golf betting insider Matt Vincenzi hitting Justin Rose first-round lead outright (100-1, FanDuel) and FanSided senior editor Cody Williams hitting Rory McIlroy to win (+650, FanDuel). We’ve hit the FRL market in four of the last five weeks. Now, we turn our attention to Harbour Town for the RBC Heritage.
Our panel includes SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Vincenzi , SI senior golf editor John Schwarb , Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra . Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. Kirschner is up over 123 units on the year thanks to three FRL hits and a longshot outright win.
Vincenzi is now up 69 units thanks to his Rose pick. Williams has hit two outright picks and a FRL and is up over 30 units. MacMillan, Schwarb and Giuffra are all looking for their first big hit and are down 21, 33 and 21 units respectively.
The betting panel offers a chance to keep our hot streak going. The panel is mixed between a few favorites for our outrights and some players in the midrange of the odds. All of them are big-name players.
Let’s get into the picks with explanations below the graphic. Outright Pick After taking a few weeks off betting on Morikawa, I’m back on the bus for one more ride. He has been playing too well to not win a PGA Tour event in 2025 and if there’s one he can win, it’s the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town.
This course demands accuracy and no golfer is more accurate than Morikawa. It’s time for him to end his winless drought. Justin Thomas didn’t play well at the Masters.
History has shown us that playing well at the Masters has very little relevance when it comes to the ability to contend at the RBC Heritage the following week. Last year, Thomas finished T5 at Harbour Town, which is a course that oftentimes requires players to gain experience playing multiple times before winning. Short game and putting is a requirement here, and the two-time major winner continues to gain strokes with the putter and has done so in seven of his nine starts this season.
I’m going to go to the well one more time on the Tour’s preeminent iron player who was ninth at Harbour Town last year. I picked him to win the Masters (oops), but for the sake of this week’s event, I don’t mind that he was T14 at Augusta and never a factor. I don’t like to bet players one week after stressful major weekends.
I promise this will be the last time I write up Daniel Berger for this column. However, I still remain very high on his chance to knock off a win in 2025 and cement his spot on the Ryder Cup team. At the end of the day, Berger is just playing some great golf.
With no finish worse than T30 in his last seven starts, he is playing some of the most consistent golf on tour. T21 at the Masters gaining 5 strokes ball striking, he certainly found something on a long golf course. This is his week to win.
Let’s get weird! Hovland played a bit unevenly at the Masters. The two things that stood out were gaining strokes on approach (3.74) for the sixth straight event but also gaining with the putter for the second straight start and gaining, albeit slightly, around the green.
Hovland is among the best in this field on approach from 125-200 yards and is finding his golf swing again. With things trending in the right direction and a win at the Valspar already, I love what he offers this week. It’s taken Schauffele time to regain his form coming off a rib injury, but he seemed to find something at Augusta, gaining the 10th-most shots tee-to-green and finishing a season-best T8.
This is a target golf course with relatively easy greens. Schauffele is one of the most accurate iron players on the PGA Tour, ranking third in SG: Approach. He was fourth here in 2023 and T18 last year.
Longshot If you want to back someone at 75-1 who has a fantastic course history, consider J.T. Poston.
He finished T6 in 2019, T8 in 2020, T3 in 2022, and T5 in 2024. He’s an accurate driver of the golf ball, ranking 26th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, which is a key metric for Harbour Town. He’s worth a sprinkle at this price point.
At first glance, Akshay Bhatia may not seem like the type of player who would fare well at Harbour Town. However, when looking at his statistics this season, he checks all the boxes of what I’m looking for this week. I’m concerned that Michael Kim might be about to hit a wall in terms of fatigue, but at this price, I’m also willing to take a look at one of the better stories on Tour this season.
The runner-up in Phoenix and solo-fourth finisher at the Genesis has kept a busy schedule and you don’t sit out signature events (unless you have a new green jacket), and Harbour Town is an equalizer that doesn’t require bombing off the tee. Maybe he makes a run this weekend, then takes some well-deserved time off. J.
J. might have peaked in that playoff at The Players but I am willing to bet one of the best iron players in the field this week. He has shown his ability to contend on shorter Pete Dye courses and middle iron play is all this course is about.
4th in this field in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds is enough for me to take a stab at 66/1. Although the course history is not amazing, I believe he can figure it out here. We’re digging deep here but Bridgeman has some real value.
He’s gaining on approach, is Top 25 tee-to-green, and first in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds. While I do worry a bit about some inaccuracy off of the tee, his game seems to be made for him to have a nice week at RBC Heritage. I’ll sprinkle on him for some Top 20 as well, but I’ll take a flier at 125-1 for him to shock the heavy hitters and win this week as well.
Hoge has been on fire with his irons recently and was fourth in SG: Approach at the Masters. He placed T14 there and was T3 at The Players and T5 at the Valero in the weeks before. His putting, as is so often the case for Hoge, was weak at Augusta.
The good news is Harbour Town is an easier putting test. First-Round Leader When the PGA Tour heads to a course where golfers don’t need to be long off the tee to succeed, I immediately look at Tom Hoge. He’s short off the tee but outside of that, he’s a fantastic ball striker and iron player.
He ranks 12th in strokes gained approach and 40th in birdie average. He’s coming off a T14 finish at the Masters and I think he’ll carry that into a strong first round at Harbour Town. I am extremely high on Hisatsune this week.
If this was the RBC Heritage of old, he’d probably be my pick to win. However, with the signature status of the event it feels like a bit too much too soon for the talented young player from Japan. Hisatsune is an accurate driver of the ball and has a great short game.
He’s fared well at shorter comparable courses over. J.J.
Spaun is second in strokes-gained approach this season, the key stat for tight Harbour Town, and on the season has four opening rounds of 66 or better—including 66 at the Players, where he ultimately lost in a playoff to Rory McIlroy. I’m not ready to back him with win money yet but this is a good price on a hot Thursday. Once a winner on a shorter positional Bermuda course in the past six months, Mav McNealy is fighting for a spot at Bethpage.
Simply put, ranked inside the top 10 in the world at this price is something I am interested in. Third at Valero and 32nd at the Masters in his last two starts is great and I can see him coming out to a hot start. The recent short game struggles for Straka worry me about his ceiling to win this week, but I do think his approach play is too strong right now for me to not think he can put forth a stellar first round and take an early lead.
He’s fifth in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and fourth in Greens Gained over that span. Combine that with a T5 and T3 here in two of his last three starts at the Heritage, and give me the Sepp-tic Tank to come out as a first-round leader. Finau couldn’t putt at Augusta, losing over two strokes against the field.
His other metrics were solid, including SG: Approach. Now he returns to a course where he finished T12 last year. This is the perfect place for Finau to jumpstart an otherwise poor season.
Prop Bet Aaron Rai put together a solid finish at the Masters and now he heads to a course that fits his game to perfection. Accuracy is his No. 1 strength by a significant margin, ranking second in driving accuracy and 40th in strokes gained: approach.
He’ll face a few fellow UK and Ireland golfers who are coming off an emotional Masters week like Shane Lowry and Justin Rose. Tommy Fleetwood and Robert MacIntyre also didn’t have their best stuff last week. Rai is the best mix of the bunch between course fit and recent form.
Fleetwood has finished in the Top 25 in three of his five trips to Harbour Town, with his best finish coming in 2022 (T10). Last year, the Englishman charged up the leaderboard on Sunday at the Masters to finish T3. History has shown, with the exception of Scheffler, that players who finish extremely well at the Masters tend to struggle at the RBC Heritage.
I’m much more comfortable with Fleetwood’s T21 finish this week when it comes to his ability to contend at Harbour Town. Some might look at Justin Rose as a hot hand. I see someone who has to be mentally spent after that Sunday at the Masters.
He’s at Harbour Town because he’s a pro’s pro and it’s a big-money/points signature event, but this is a matchup of motivations and J.T. Poston has more.
The Postman sits at 70th in FedEx Cup points and he has four top-10s at Harbour Town in six starts, including third last year, so I have no qualms in laying the favorite’s price with him here. I am simply fading Corey Conners this week after playing in the second to last group on Saturday and Sunday at the Masters. I think he is due for an emotional letdown this week and it is totally warranted.
For a golfer of his caliber, last week must have taken a lot out of him. On the other hand, this is a perfect course for Russ and I don't think Tommy's game is sharp right now. Lowry faded brutally on Sunday at the Masters but he continues to play stellar golf right now.
He’s third in SG: Approach, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, second in Scrambling and 13th in Greens Gained over the last 24 rounds while also being an average putter on Bermuda. Lowry has finished outside the Top 60 the past two years here but lost more than seven strokes with his short game in 2023 and nearly 11 strokes in that department in 2024. That part of his game is in much better shape now, so he can finish Top 10 at a spot where he’s done so thrice in his career.
This course sets up well for a ball striker like Rai. He was T48 in his only appearance here in 2023, but he’s a much better player now. He’s 40th on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and 71st in SG: Putting.
His driving accuracy should be critical to success this week. Winning Score Iain MacMillan: -21 Matt Vincenzi: -19 John Schwarb: -18 Brian Kirschner: -17 Cody Williams: -18 Brian Giuffra:-19 Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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