2 weeks Ago
And conversely, praising something occurring in the here and now can be misconstrued as overlooking a more general problem. Last week, when asking Tom Cleverley what had happened to Watford’s results since the turn of the year, the phrase this writer chose to use was that things had gone ‘pear-shaped’. A couple of readers challenged those two words, suggesting it was being overly critical of a season where – at that point – Watford were sitting in the top 10 of the Championship.
However, it is (and should be) possible to look at short periods or even individual games and highlight faults, areas for improvements and be critical. In doing so, that is not dismissing progress made or failing to acknowledge that Watford still haven’t dipped below halfway in the table all season long – though they are getting perilously close. At the start of the season, when asked to predict where Watford would finish, 10th to 13th felt a fair and upbeat suggestion.
That may actually prove to be on the money, though hopefully it’ll be 10th or 11th rather than 12th or 13th, as to end the season ‘above the fold’ would almost certainly exceed all reasonable expectations. A year ago, the Hornets were just emerging safely from an unpleasant trip to the edge of the relegation battle. Now they are slipping away from an unexpected eight-month journey around the edge of the play-offs.
Once the number of games played goes past 40, it is very hard to argue that a team is not where it deserves to be. Watford are, as it stands, a very mid-table Championship team. They have never had to worry about relegation at any point this season, but similarly it always felt that the play-offs were more a mathematical possibility than a realistic probability.
Nonetheless, that eight-month trip into and out of the play-off places with no sight of the relegation trapdoor is a far more pleasant method of proving you’re a mid-table team than last season’s rise, plunge and subsequent scramble to safety. But what has happened in each of the last three seasons since the 21/22 relegation from the Premier League is that Watford’s form has tailed off in the New Year. This season has been surprisingly worry-free, with a good amount of promise and is likely to end with Watford finishing a few places higher than last term.
Yet while rightly acknowledging all of the above, it still feels fair to say that things have gone a bit ‘pear-shaped’ since the turn of the year – for the third season in succession. Of course, the most obvious response would be ‘well that’s because they mucked up the January transfer window’. It is hard to argue that Watford haven’t covered themselves in glory in any of the last three winter windows.
Slaven Bilic got none of what he wanted, Valerian Ismael was given one new signing, Tom Cleverley got some of what was needed but not enough to maintain the points return from the first half of the season. However, the same players that did well before the turn of the year were still at the club when things later tailed off. Let’s have a look at the numbers from the last three seasons, starting with results and league position before the end of the year, and then in the New Year.
P25 W10 D7 L8 F30 A28 Pts37 (5th) P21 W6 D8 L7 F26 A25 Pts26 (11th) P25 W9 D8 L8 F39 A33 Pts35 (10th) P21 W4 D9 L8 F22 A28 Pts21 (15th) P23 W11 D4 L8 F33 A31 Pts37 (7th) P19 W5 D4 L10 F17 A24 Pts19 (currently 11th) Each season, Watford have ended lower in the league table than they were at the start of the year. If you amalgamate the pre and post-New Year results from those three seasons, you get this: P73 W30 D19 L24 F102 A92 Pts109 P61 W15 D21 L24 F65 A77 Pts66 Over the last three seasons, the number of points Watford have taken on average per game in fixtures before the turn of the year has been 1.49.
After the turn of the year, that has dropped to 1.08. The Hornets have, over the last three seasons, won 41% of games up to the end of the year, but then only 24% in the New Year.
What is rather interesting is that the rate at which Watford have conceded goals (1.26 per game) has been exactly the same before and after the turn of the year in each of those three seasons. However, they have scored 1.
40 goals per game up to December 31 each season, but only 1.07 from January 1 onwards. Does the data and statistics mean it is fair to ask the question why do things go pear-shaped from the start of the year? Or is that harsh, particularly this season? Moreover, what actually lies behind that drop-off in win percentage, goals scored and points earned? Can it be as simple as not using the January transfer window effectively, or is there a wider mindset problem within the club that is causing this to happen for the third season in succession? As it’s a quiet week with no midweek fixtures for the senior team, Under-21s or Under-18s, we’ll turn this one over to you.
What has happened in the second half of each of the last three Watford seasons, why has it happened, and what are your suggestions to stop it in future? Leave your comments below for a good healthy debate!.
