2 weeks Ago By Andrew Fisher
Of the current political leaders in Westminster, only one has a chance of being Prime Minister after the next election: Nigel Farage. That’s the view of a new poll by More in Common which shows Reform currently on course to be the largest party in the Commons at the next election.Ask yourself, do you really see Sir Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch, or Ed Davey being prime minister after 2029? In the case of Starmer and Badenoch I very much doubt they will lead their parties into the next general election.
Indeed, the looming local elections could prove a death knell for either, or at least the beginning of the end.if(window.adverts) { window.
adverts.addToArray({"pos": "inread-hb-ros-inews"}); }If you’re the Leader of the Opposition and you’re losing ground against a deeply unpopular government then your days are numbered. Kemi Badenoch has been a dreadfully underwhelming Leader of the Opposition.
After Rishi Sunak led the Conservatives to their worst ever general election defeat, the Conservative vote share has not improved – even though Labour is floundering in office.Despite Starmer’s dire personal ratings, he commands a 15-point lead over Badenoch for who would make the best prime minister. Badenoch is seen as less favourable as a prime minister than Ed Davey too in other polls.
On 1 May, the Conservatives have the most to lose: currently holding the majority of county councils up for grabs. If they cede control of most of them, then expect the rapid turnover of Conservative leaders in recent years to continue. From Iain Duncan Smith to Liz Truss, the Tories have dealt ruthlessly with underperforming leaders in recent decades.
Things are not any better for Labour leader Starmer. Lose the Runcorn and Helsby by-election and the four city region mayoralties up for election (two of which are new, but in areas where Labour won at the 2024 general election, and two are held by Labour), and Starmer may also find himself under pressure.if(window.
adverts) { window.adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_mobile_l1"}); }if(window.
adverts) { window.adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l1"}); }Starmer’s team has long trailed a post-election reshuffle – a blame-the-others strategy that backfired in 2021 when Starmer sought to sack Angela Rayner after Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election.
Reshuffles are best achieved from a position of strength, which Starmer will not be in on 2 May.The problem with this Government is not Cabinet ministers who most of the public have no strong feelings about (even if they have heard of them), but a deep and settled dislike for Starmer, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves and their policies to cut the winter fuel payment and disability benefits.With tough parliamentary votes looming on those disability benefit cuts, Starmer cannot afford to be losing his authority.
MPs don’t worry about toeing the line if they think the Leader (who controls career progression) won’t be in post for much longer. And the last thing the UK needs – with all its ailments – is another lame-duck prime minister clinging onto office.So who else is there? The Liberal Democrats are just too cringy and peripheral to form a party of government.
Under Davey they have embraced their quirky-but-safe protest vote identity, and have ticked up only modestly in the polls since the election.#color-context-related-article-3646881 {--inews-color-primary: #5C909D;--inews-color-secondary: #EFF4F5;--inews-color-tertiary: #5C909D;} Read Next square POLITICS .inews__post__label__big-reads{background-color: #0a0a0a;color: #ffffff;}Big ReadBeware potholes and bin strikes: How Reform is plotting to defeat Labour and ToriesRead MoreThe Greens, who like Reform won a parliamentary breakthrough last July, have also failed to seize the moment.
Unlike Reform, they lack media supporters – newspapers and even TV stations – that cheer and regularly platform their main spokespeople, but they also appear to lack the required energy and strategy to capitalise on Labour’s unpopularity.The 1 May is therefore likely to be a good night only for Reform, but it will be a much worse night for Labour and the Conservatives.And that fact holds another truth: Reform is only “winning” by default.
For years, Farage was a diverting sideline – an anti-EU obsessive whose previous political vehicles (Ukip and the Brexit Party) only gained minor or temporary wins. Reform only looks like a juggernaut because Labour and the Conservatives are so feeble.if(window.
adverts) { window.adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_mobile_l2"}); }if(window.
adverts) { window.adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l2"}); }For the good of British politics, Starmer and Badenoch need to go before a general election.
So far they have proved themselves not up to the job, and the British public – unenthusiastic for either main party for some time – is likely to look elsewhere (or more likely stay at home) on 1 May.As Britain continues to stagnate economically, we need dynamism, we need robust and engaging argument about competing visions, and we need rid of Starmer and Badenoch who lack all of those abilities – which is why people have stopped listening.Andrew Fisher is a former executive director of policy for the Labour Party.
