Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation

The U.S. expects Ukraine's response Wednesday to a peace framework that includes U.S. recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the 2022 invasion, sources with direct knowledge of the proposal tell Axios.Why it matters: The one-page document the U.S. presented Ukrainian officials in Paris last week describes this as President Trump's "final offer." The White House insists it's ready to walk away if the parties don't make a deal soon.Trump's proposal would require major concessions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who previously ruled out accepting Russia's occupation of Crimea and parts of four regions in eastern Ukraine.And while Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly offered to freeze the current front lines in order to reach a deal, he has previously rejected other elements of the U.S. framework, such as a European peacekeeping force on Ukrainian territory.A source close to the Ukrainian government said Kyiv sees the proposal as highly biased towards Russia: "The proposal says very clearly what tangible gains Russia gets, but only vaguely and generally says what Ukraine is going to get."What Russia gets under Trump's proposal"De jure" U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea."De-facto recognition" of the Russia's occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. The text notes that Ukraine could become part of the European Union.The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014.Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.Data: ISW/CTP; Map: Axios VisualsWhat Ukraine gets under Trump's proposal"A robust security guarantee" involving an ad hoc group of European countries and potentially also like-minded non-European countries. The document is vague in terms of how this peacekeeping operation would function and does not mention any U.S. participation.The return of the small part of Kharkiv oblast Russia has occupied.Unimpeded passage of the Dnieper River, which runs along the front line in parts of southern Ukraine.Compensation and assistance for rebuilding, though the document does not say where the funding will come from.Other elements of the planThe Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — the largest such facility in Europe — will be considered as Ukrainian territory but operated by the U.S., with electricity supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.The document references the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal, which Trump has said will be signed on Thursday.The intrigue: The plan was drafted after Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin for more than four hours last week.After the plan was presented, Putin offered to pause Russia's invasion along the current front lines as part of a potential deal, the FT reports.That's the biggest gesture from Putin so far to signal he's willing to make peace, but European officials remain skeptical.What's next: Witkoff will travel to Moscow later this week for his fourth meeting with Putin, the White House announced Tuesday.But Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are both expected to skip talks in London on Wednesday involving U.S., Ukrainian, French, German and U.K. officials. Both had previously planned to attend.Instead, Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg is expected to lead the U.S. delegation. The U.S. proposal is expected to be part of the discussions.Between the lines: A U.S. official involved in the discussions said Rubio and Witkoff worked together "to develop a framework to get us closer to reaching an end to the war."However, the official said that over the last 24 hours there had been indications from the Ukrainians that they wanted to discuss a 30-day ceasefire during Wednesday's meetings in London rather than Trump's peace plan framework."The decision was made for the secretary to not travel to London. Instead, the U.S. delegation will continue to engage in conversations with U.K. and Ukrainian counterparts," the official said.Rubio tweeted that he'd had a "productive" conversation with his U.K. counterpart and looked forward "to following up" after the discussions in London.What they're saying: "Negotiations continue and hopefully we are in the right direction," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday.

The U.S. expects Ukraine's response Wednesday to a peace framework that includes U.

S. recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the 2022 invasion, sources with direct knowledge of the proposal tell Axios.Why it matters: The one-page document the U.

S. presented Ukrainian officials in Paris last week describes this as President Trump's "final offer." The White House insists it's ready to walk away if the parties don't make a deal soon.

Trump's proposal would require major concessions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who previously ruled out accepting Russia's occupation of Crimea and parts of four regions in eastern Ukraine.And while Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly offered to freeze the current front lines in order to reach a deal, he has previously rejected other elements of the U.S.

framework, such as a European peacekeeping force on Ukrainian territory.A source close to the Ukrainian government said Kyiv sees the proposal as highly biased towards Russia: "The proposal says very clearly what tangible gains Russia gets, but only vaguely and generally says what Ukraine is going to get."What Russia gets under Trump's proposal"De jure" U.

S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea."De-facto recognition" of the Russia's occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. The text notes that Ukraine could become part of the European Union.The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014.

Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.

Data: ISW/CTP; Map: Axios VisualsWhat Ukraine gets under Trump's proposal"A robust security guarantee" involving an ad hoc group of European countries and potentially also like-minded non-European countries. The document is vague in terms of how this peacekeeping operation would function and does not mention any U.S.

participation.The return of the small part of Kharkiv oblast Russia has occupied.Unimpeded passage of the Dnieper River, which runs along the front line in parts of southern Ukraine.

Compensation and assistance for rebuilding, though the document does not say where the funding will come from.Other elements of the planThe Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — the largest such facility in Europe — will be considered as Ukrainian territory but operated by the U.S.

, with electricity supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.The document references the U.S.

-Ukraine minerals deal, which Trump has said will be signed on Thursday.The intrigue: The plan was drafted after Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin for more than four hours last week.After the plan was presented, Putin offered to pause Russia's invasion along the current front lines as part of a potential deal, the FT reports.

That's the biggest gesture from Putin so far to signal he's willing to make peace, but European officials remain skeptical.What's next: Witkoff will travel to Moscow later this week for his fourth meeting with Putin, the White House announced Tuesday.But Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are both expected to skip talks in London on Wednesday involving U.

S., Ukrainian, French, German and U.K.

officials. Both had previously planned to attend.Instead, Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg is expected to lead the U.

S. delegation. The U.

S. proposal is expected to be part of the discussions.Between the lines: A U.

S. official involved in the discussions said Rubio and Witkoff worked together "to develop a framework to get us closer to reaching an end to the war."However, the official said that over the last 24 hours there had been indications from the Ukrainians that they wanted to discuss a 30-day ceasefire during Wednesday's meetings in London rather than Trump's peace plan framework.

"The decision was made for the secretary to not travel to London. Instead, the U.S.

delegation will continue to engage in conversations with U.K. and Ukrainian counterparts," the official said.

Rubio tweeted that he'd had a "productive" conversation with his U.K. counterpart and looked forward "to following up" after the discussions in London.

What they're saying: "Negotiations continue and hopefully we are in the right direction," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday..