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Utahns born into low-income families still have a better chance of making more than their parents than if they were born elsewhere, a new study shows, but those younger Utahns lost ground between generations. The state looks “very good in terms of economic mobility,” said economist Raj Chetty . Chetty is the William A.
Ackman Professor of Economics at Harvard University and the director of Opportunity Insights , which uses data to study the science of economic opportunity and ways to give children from all backgrounds better chances of succeeding. He spoke recently at a Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute seminar about upward mobility between generations.
Intergenerational mobility — the idea that you’ll do better than your parents — is core to the American dream, but it’s not guaranteed. The ability to move up depends largely on where you grow up, according to an analysis by Opportunity Insights and the U.S.
Census Bureau. And though there are still “substantial” divides based on race, Chetty said, there are some “encouraging signs of progress.” ‘Significant’ upward mobility, but not for all Chetty talked about the Opportunity Atlas , which uses anonymized data from the U.
S. Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service to follow millions of Americans from childhood to adulthood. It specifically compared average household income, pulled from tax return data, at age 27 for Americans born to low-income families in both 1978 and 1992 to get a localized picture of changing opportunities over time.
After normalizing incomes based on 2023 dollars, the research found upward mobility largely declined for millennials compared to Generation X. Utah still offers “a significant amount of upward mobility in a single generation,” Chetty said, from parents making the 25th percentile of about $27,000 to kids born in 1992 making an average of about $36,100 at age 27. That’s the sixth-highest outcome of any state for the 1992 cohort, according to the Opportunity Atlas data.
But it’s an 8.4% drop from the average income of Utahns born in 1978 to low-income parents. That drop is among the biggest in the nation.
Latino, Black Utahns see a rise There were some exceptions. In counties where data was available, minorities either saw gains between generations or a smaller drop. Utahns identifying as Hispanic or Latino and Black born in 1992 saw the largest gains over people born in 1978, though their earnings at 27 were still less than white people born in Utah.
And while children in most of the 21 counties in Utah with enough data available made less between generations, even while making more than their parents, there was a small gain in Sanpete County and a 7.6% gain in Millard County. On the flip side, counties reliant on employment in coal, oil and other fossil-fuel-related industries – namely Carbon, Duchesne and Uintah counties – saw the biggest drops of at least 20%.
That likely ties to one thing researchers wrote of upward mobility: “Children’s outcomes are shaped by parental employment rates of peers with whom they interact most,” a nontechnical version of the research reads. Solutions help reduce segregation Chetty said researchers noticed four other patterns in areas with high economic mobility: He also talked about solutions that have worked elsewhere to improve upward mobility. For example, the use of Housing Choice Vouchers (formerly known as Section 8) is typically clustered in low-mobility neighborhoods, Chetty said.
But social support interventions can help families move to high-mobility neighborhoods. A program in Seattle helped significantly more families move to better neighborhoods, and children in those families earned at least $200,000 more during their careers. Now increased to a larger scale through the Housing Choice Voucher Mobility Demonstration Act , the program is continuing to work to improve odds at upward mobility, he said.
But moving everyone isn’t scalable, he said, so place-based investments are also important. Revitalizing areas with high rates of poverty or other issues also helps kids interact with people in other economic classes, Chetty said. He pointed to programs in Berkeley and Atlanta that have led to improved interactions with “folks in surrounding communities.
A third solution is improving access to higher education and workforce training, he said. Children from low-income families are less likely to get a postsecondary education than kids from high-income families, he said, even with the same SAT scores. “Very few institutions educate low-income children and deliver good outcomes for them,” Chetty said.
Not a fixed pie At some level, Chetty said, officials could be satisfied with Utah offering better opportunities than other places. At some level, Chetty said, Utah officials could be satisfied that the Beehive State offers better opportunities. But there’s no guarantee that remains the case, he said.
Chetty stressed that officials choosing to do things to help some people won’t hurt those who already have a good chance at mobility. “You can create opportunity in one place without taking away from others,” he said, adding it’s not a fixed pie but one that can grow. Utah Speaker of the House Mike Schultz has personal experience with that.
The Hooper resident said he grew up “on the bottom end” but had great mentors and connections. “There are so many of us in this community who grew up this way, who are these numbers,” Schultz said. It’s important, he said, to “intermix and integrate” and otherwise create opportunities for people in lower economic classes.
Megan Banta is The Salt Lake Tribune’s data enterprise reporter, a philanthropically supported position . The Tribune retains control over all editorial decisions..
