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Though the Senate passed the bill narrowly on Tuesday — a tie-breaking vote by Vice President JD Vance put it one vote over the threshold — it now heads back to the House of Representatives, where power struggles within Republican ranks could still scuttle the legislation.
And the House, which approved a previous version by just one vote, will still need to resolve differences with the Senate version. Key factions are divided on several issues, even with Republicans in control of both chambers, raising the threat of the measure being stopped before Trump is able to sign it into law.
Debt Fears and Internal Resistance
The CBO has said that the Senate’s version of the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years — roughly half a trillion more than the first version from the House. This figure has concerned fiscal hawks, particularly in the House Freedom Caucus, who complain it will saddle future generations with billions in debt.
Former Trump adviser Elon Musk has voiced the same alarm about increasing national debt. Representative Ralph Norman, Republican of South Carolina, said the Senate’s version was “unconscionable” and vowed to vote against it. Fellow Freedom Caucus members Chip Roy and Andy Harris also expressed their opposition, with Harris saying: “Mr Musk is right. We cannot sustain these deficits.”
Warren Davidson of Ohio blasted the bill as a “runaway spending train,” and Higgins criticized the promises of future spending cuts. At the same time, State Sen. Andy Ogles led an assault to substitute the Senate version of the bill in its entirety, with the original House language.
Healthcare Cuts and Electoral Risk
Moderates in swing districts worry not just about the deficit but also about the depth of health care cuts. Rep. David Valadao, California Republican, voted against measures that he said risk Medicaid funding or stability for healthcare providers. Under the plan the Senate passed, about 12 million Americans would, in CBO’s estimates, be going without health insurance by 2034 – only a million more than if the House’s earlier iteration became law.
Reductions to Medicaid and food subsidies are also major worries. Some Republicans fear these changes could hurt their access to low-income constituents and harm their re-election prospects in 2026.
Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said it would be an uphill battle to gather the votes needed and added, “I think this is far from over. It's a dire situation.”
Tax Deductions and SALT Dispute
A second controversial part has to do with the limit on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Both the House and Senate wanted to increase the cap from $10,000 to $40,000. But the Senate’s version has a sunset clause that would lower the cap to $10,000 after five years. And this is where it could affect Republican members of the House in high-tax states who want the expanded deduction to remain permanent.
Looking Ahead
And yet, Republicans remain frustrated even as some are interested in negotiation. Representative Randy Fine of Florida said he would support the Senate version, saying “We can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.” But the road ahead is far from clear.
And if the House does not give the Senate bill its go-ahead, additional delays could imperil Trump’s self-imposed signing cutoff of 4 July. Both members of the party’s centrist faction and members of the hard-line conservative Freedom Caucus are pushing to make changes to the bill, and that is creating problems for Republican leaders trying to exert their influence over the drafting of the measure.
