National Climate Risk Assessment Findings
Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment said that extreme weather events (e.g., floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, bushfires) will increase in frequency and magnitude in the coming decades.
The 72-page report was published just weeks before the government announces new emissions reduction targets for 2035, and noted that threats mentioned will come upon us “cascading, compounding and concurrent...”, which means that we may experience multiple dangers at the same time.
The Minister for Climate Change, Chris Bowen, said, "Australians are already living with the scars of climate change today, but it is clear every degree of warming we are able to avoid now will help future generations and the people of Australia avoid the worst impacts of climate change in the coming years."
The report examined three climate scenarios of global warming: over 1.5°C, over 2°C, and over 3°C background temperatures. Australia has crossed the threshold of above 1.5°C and consequently is at greater risk.
Under a 3°C background temperature scenario, heat-related deaths in Sydney may increase by more than 400% and in Melbourne, nearly three times. Cost impacts and risk for coastal areas
By the year 2050, the number of coastal areas identified as "high and very high risk areas" will increase significantly. If population levels remain stable, Australians who will be directly and permanently harmed by rising sea levels may reach a staggering 1.5 million.
Mostly remote areas and the urban fringe of larger cities in northern Australia could be significantly impacted.
The report also considered economic consequences for floods, bushfires, and the effects of ocean warming leading to poor water quality. If climate conditions worsened, real estate values could decrease by A$611 billion ($406bn; £300bn).
There are the same coupled threats that will influence health systems, emergency systems, critical infrastructure, primary industries, and natural ecosystems.
Ecosystems and reefs
Australia's famous natural locations were also highlighted as being at real risk. NSW's Great Barrier Reef and WA's Ningaloo Reef, which are already suffering from record coral bleaching events, have an imperative threat of coral bleaching and loss of biodiversity.
The report qualified the impact of these changes in terms of being a not-for-profit risk for marine ecosystems, but industry and tourism relying on healthy reefs. Likewise, the rest of Australia's biodiversity would also fare poorly in habitats subjected to extremes in weather and temperatures.
To stay or leave: Australia is at a fork in the road
The assessment laid out that Australia is one of the world's highest per capita polluters and therefore must do the right thing regarding climate change. Communities, infrastructure, health, and ecosystems are concerning the Government's next climate targets, for 2035, could be a key step in limiting damage.
If Australians are already experiencing life on a warming planet, the forecast indicates that if we take stronger measures now, we may be able to limit the overall extent of destruction by the year 2050, this is significant for the 100 million Australians who live in damaging areas.The response over the next decades for Australia also depends upon how soon or effectively we can adapt and mitigate emissions.
