15 hours Ago
If you are looking to win big on Kentucky Derby investments, it is imperative that you properly identify which bottom horses can fill out the trifecta and superfecta. Landing on which horses can hit the board, at moonshot odds, can exponentially spice up the payouts. As we know, six consecutive Kentucky post-time favorites have all come up short, spicing up the return on exotic wagers.
A deeper dive reveals in addition to a recent trend of a price horse landing on top, over the last four Run for the Roses, the trifecta has brought back an average of $4,900-1. Meanwhile, the superfecta (the top four finishers in order) have paid out an average of $88,713-1! In this feature we will take a look at the several morning-line deep longshots who have the potential to outrun their odds and crash the tote board. Grande 20-1 POST-POSITION: No.
10 JOCKEY : John Velazquez / TRAINER : Todd Pletcher RECORD : 3 starts: 2-1-0 TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 106 RUNNING STYLE : Stalker (Prefers to press the pace) CAREER EARNINGS : $228,200 Trainer Todd Pletcher, who will be in search of his third career Derby win, will send out a runner who he deemed is “ flying under the radar .” “We are here with one horse, who I think is on the improve and he is under the radar a little bit,” said Pletcher. “People who really look at all the speed figures and all of those kinds of things, it shows that he fits.
Just got to hope that the lack of experience does not really hurt him with only three starts coming in.” The Wood Memorial (G2) runner-up pre-Derby workout was turned in at Keeneland as opposed to Churchill Downs running five-furlongs in 1:01.00 on April 25.
Pletcher deemed the work “super” and “full of energy.” Coal Battle 30-1 POST-POSITION: No. 16 JOCKEY : Juan Vargas / TRAINER : Lonnie Briley RECORD : 8 starts: 5-0-1 TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 104 RUNNING STYLE : Closer CAREER EARNINGS : $1,188,875 The connections of Coal Battle are hoping he returns to the form showcased in winning the Rebel Stakes, as opposed to his disappointing effort displayed in the Arkansas Derby, Lonnie Briley’s hope to win the prestigious race in his Derby debut rests on the deep longshot who fired a bullet three-furlongs in :36.
00 on April 28. If you are willing to draw a line through his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, you land on a horse on a four-race winning streak at moonshot 30-1 odds. Chunk of Gold 30-1 POST-POSITION: No.
19 JOCKEY : Jareth Loveberry / TRAINER : Ethan West RECORD : 4 starts: 1-3-0 TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96 RUNNING STYLE : Closer CAREER EARNINGS : $348,818 Trainer Ethan West, who has kept his talented colt training at Turfway Park leading up to Derby, is pleased with Chunk of Gold’s progression after most recently firing off five-furlongs in :59.20 on April 25. “It was phenomenal, couldn’t have asked for it to go any smoother,” said West.
Despite never winning a stakes race at any level, Chunk of Gold’s late-running closing style could have him in the mix late. We also should highlight that West stated that “post No. 19 was not ideal.
” Superfecta projects as his ceiling. Final Gambit 30-1 POST NUMBER : No. 3 JOCKEY : Luan Machado / TRAINER : Brad H.
Cox RECORD : 4 starts: 2-1-1 TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 96 RUNNING STYLE : Closer CAREER EARNINGS : $520,639 Due to his unproven dirt form we find the Jeff Ruby Steaks winner being offered at healthy 30-1 morning-line odds that will likely float higher come post-time. Entering the Derby without any starts on a dirt track could lead to a massive upset if he handles the surface switch. Final Gambit has been training great in the mornings at Churchill Downs and his lead up has Brad Cox enthusiastic about his chances .
“I’m good with the post (No. 3), he has some speed around him, so they should get away from him a little bit, allowing him to sit a ground-saving trip,” said Cox. “If he can handle the kick-back and somehow work out a trip, I think he will be right there.
I think he will definitely handle the 1 1⁄4 distance.” Post 3 has been a great gate of late producing three straight ITM finishes: Mystik Dan, 1st last year, followed by runner-up finishes by Two Phil’s 2023 and Epicenter in 2022. Overall, post 3 has produced a very strong 23.
2% ITM percentage..
