1 week Ago By Arj Singh
A Conservative thrashing at the hands of both Reform and the Liberal Democrats is what many are expecting from next week’s local elections.The Tories are defending a 973 seats, far more than any other party, after a stellar performance amid the Covid vaccine bounce in 2021. But they are on course to lose many of them as voters continue to punish the party for its time in government.
However if things go badly, Sir Keir Starmer may also endure a very difficult day.if(window.adverts) { window.
adverts.addToArray({"pos": "inread-hb-ros-inews"}); }A YouGov poll on Friday’s mayoral races suggests Reform will win in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire, while the Greens look set to take the West of England, and the Tories may even hang on in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.Runcorn looking ‘tough’ admits No 10Meanwhile, pollsters and election experts predict Labour could lose the Runcorn by-election as well as councils like Doncaster and even Durham to Reform, while facing a potential wipeout due to challenges from the left in the shape of the Lib Dems and Greens in Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire councils.
No 10 admits Runcorn is likely to be “tough”, with one source pointing out that “you’ve got a by-election sparked by an MP punching a constituent, in any circumstances it would be difficult for the party to hold on to that seat”.Health Secretary Wes Streeting attends an event to launch ‘NHS Day of Action’ in Runcorn (Photo: Cameron Smith/Getty Images)More widely, they said Labour was taking the blame for a dire inheritance left by the Tories.if(window.
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adverts) { window.adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l1"}); }“We are a new Government that has inherited a state that is taxing people more than ever and public services are on their knees.
“People are justifiably impatient to see further change delivered.“We understand that, which is why we’ve tried to do really tough necessary reform and the difficult things early because people want to see that change fast.”Labour argues it is Tories and Reform facing a ‘test’They stressed the local elections were also a “test” of Badenoch’s leadership, arguing she looks “so weak” for being unable to discipline Robert Jenrick, widely seen as being on leadership manoeuvres.
Kemi Badenoch is congratulated by Robert Jenrick after winning the Conservative Party leadership last year. But many think he is making another a play for the top job (Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)And Labour, like many Tories and Lib Dems, believes that Reform winning big will be a “huge test” for Nigel Farage’s party, arguing they are topping the polls because of his “massively populist stuff – quick fixes” and putting forward expensive policies without a plan to pay for them.“That’s fine for the short term and in a way if Reform win councils across the country, if they get a mayor here or there that is going to provide a level of scrutiny that Farage has never had before,” the No 10 source said.
They pointed to existing infighting – Rupert Lowe’s suspension and Reform councillors quitting because the party did not accept Elon Musk’s demands to admit Tommy Robinson.if(window.adverts) { window.
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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l2"}); }“Even Corbyn’s independent collective are more disciplined,” they said.“Reform have said that they will win big, and if that’s correct then this massive expansion coming this early, will be a huge test for them.
”Losing by-election would be ‘catastrophic’But Reform says that is Labour facing the heat and that even coming close to losing Runcorn would be “catastrophic” for Starmer’s party. “Labour claim we are unable to run councils yet they are clearly incapable of running the Government,” a source said.And senior Labour figures admit that local elections could present their party with its own problems and that the flurry of Government activity since the new year may not be enough to win over public support.
One minister said: “We’re actually delivering a lot, but we know that it will take some time for people to feel change in their lives.”A Labour source on the ground in Runcorn however argued that the problems the party was facing in the by-election “are the result of high level political decisions by the Government”.Scrapping the universal winter fuel allowance “comes up on every door” knocked by party activists, they said.
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addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l3"}); }Labour activists ready to blame ministers“If we don’t win here, the issues lie squarely with the Government,” the source said.But they added: “Us losing this is less of a surprise than Reform losing this, they should be winning this.”There have also been signs of Reform jitters, as the party keeps sending Farage to the by-election.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage branded mugs are displayed for sale as he and Reform by-election candidate Sarah Pochin tour the constituency last week (Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)The Labour source said the Reform leader had a mixed impact among former Tory voters: “As many people as he motivates he turns away.”Looking across the country one left wing Labour MP warned their party was being “eaten at both ends” as it faces losses to Reform on the right and the Lib Dems and Greens.MPs who have already been facing rising pressure on the doorstep could look at results and worry they may only last one term and this could lead to a fraying of loyalty on the backbenches, they said.
“There will be some who think: if I’m going to go out, I’m going to go out on my terms, on my principles, on my values.”if(window.adverts) { window.
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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l4"}); }Government facing doorstep pressure on small boatsAnother Labour MP in a “Red Wall” seat facing a Reform challenge says they get a regular “kicking” from voters over the small boats crisis and want to see Government do more on the crisis, in a sign of where pressure may come.A second Red Waller meanwhile suggests Reform gains could help them argue their case for tougher policies in areas including immigration: “I’m asking myself a different question – how helpful would it be if Reform win?”An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel (Photo: Chris J Ratcliffe/Reuters)A third Labour MP, a moderate in a well-heeled seat, said Starmer’s overall strategy may be the wrong one as it could cost votes in both directions.
“There are colleagues (me included) who worry that the real danger is losing the loaned progressive vote and we hit diminishing returns on fighting on their [Reform’s] turf.”Elections expert and Tory peer Lord Hayward said being squeezed from both sides was “a real problem” for Starmer.“Because we are now in multiparty politics in this country, it’s the sort of problem that’s not been faced by a government previously.
”Trouble on the backbenchesThe worst-case scenario of losing on both flanks could foment trouble on the backbenches for Starmer, he added: “You’ve got different groups pulling in different directions – one demanding action immigration and then you’ve got others pressing for changes on welfare and aid and so on.if(window.adverts) { window.
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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l5"}); }“That’s where the difficulty comes as the Government will find themselves being pressed in different directions.”While Labour may struggle to contain the narrative when results come out on Friday, a bullish No 10 believes its approach will soon pay off.
The source said that the party had credentials to flash on the left: “We’ve withstood pressure to stand by workers’ rights, we’ve delivered a huge lift in the minimum wage, both unarguably progressive and substantive economic policies.“We have obviously intervened on steel and on Grangemouth – Keir is leading an active government unashamedly intervening to protect British jobs and national security.The blast furnaces in Scunthorpe, during Angela Rayner’s visit last week after ministers took over British Steel under emergency legislation (Peter Byrne/Reuters)“These things will bear fruit.
“On the right – you can gimmick your way all the way to the top of the league table until reality bites. Farage has always been great at announcing things he knows will never happen, but until now he has never had to deliver a thing.”Party management problemsAnd they used an attack on the Tories to deflect any suggestion of Starmer’s leadership being questioned if the results go badly.
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addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l6"}); }“The idea that a Cabinet member would act in the way Robert Jenrick has been acting, and Keir wouldn’t display his strength is ridiculous,” they countered.“If you want to talk party management, it’s Kemi that has the problem – not us.”There was more positivity from a senior Labour MP who argues the party has “managed to win on expectation management” by ensuring the contest is seen as a Tory v Reform battle.
“Yes, it could be tricky if there is a big loss in Runcorn and some underperformance in the mayorals,” they said.“Equally there is a chance of a total narrative shift if we manage to keep Runcorn and get lucky in a couple of places!”Labour’s ‘polling collapse’But Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta, has a more sobering message for Labour. Although the headline of the elections would be that “the Conservatives are going to tank” at the hands of Reform and the Liberal Democrats, Labour had suffered “quite the polling collapse” and was “very much out of the honeymoon phase”, he said.
“Given the amount of seats that the Tories are defending you would expect Labour to, on paper, have a successful local election round this time,” Hopkins added.if(window.adverts) { window.
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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l7"}); }“The mid -kicking shouldn’t be as pronounced as this. They are polling worse now than they were at the equivalent time in 2021.
“I think Reform are going to win Doncaster, Greater Lincolnshire and perhaps Hull and East Yorkshire. Reform could end up with at least three mayoralties and the Runcorn by-election and because of when the counts are happening the story into Friday will be Reform.“The West of England could go to the Greens or the Lib Dems.
Labour might be able to spin their way out of the overnight results – saying the Tories are the ones losing – but they won’t be able to do that later in the day.”A Tory source said: “Labour’s attempt to shift the blame for their disastrous management of the economy would be funny if it wasn’t so offensive to the millions of people they have punished with their vindictive ideological policies.“Snatching winter fuel payments from vulnerable pensioners, pushing farmers to the brink of bankruptcy and making families £3,500 worse off with their ‘jobs tax’, Labour are making people’s lives worse.
“Just look at Birmingham – rats the size of cats roaming the streets and rubbish piled high in the streets – and a Labour government refusing to act because they are in the pay of the unions on strike.”.
