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By Sani Ibrahim Paki, Kano As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, a critical battleground is already taking shape, not in the streets or on the airwaves but on the screens of millions of young Nigerians. With over 70 per cent of the population made up of youths, the social media is emerging as a powerful tool for political mobilisation, opinion shaping and engagement, raising questions about its real impact on electoral outcomes. Before the advent of the social media, mainstream platforms like radio, television and newspapers, along with physical rallies, were the main avenues for political messaging and campaign activities.
But today, the narrative has shifted. Social media platforms now serve as digital town squares, where political debates unfold, influencers shape narratives and youths rally for change. Campaigns are no longer fought on just soapboxes and stages but in hashtags, reels, re-tweets and viral skits.
According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the country currently has over 139 million active internet users, making the social media space one of the most viable avenues for engaging more than half of the population. This digital revolution has brought influencers and skit makers into the political fold, with platforms like TikTok and Instagram becoming increasingly attractive to politicians aiming to court Gen Zs and millennials. Initially, Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) were the dominant platforms, but as new demographics emerge on other apps, politicians, especially from the opposition, are migrating to these newer platforms to shape political narratives and target the youth vote.
Last month, a former Kaduna State governor and a key opposition figure, Nasir el-Rufai joined TikTok and garnered over 200,000 followers within 24 hours. Peter Obi, the former presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), has also joined the short video-sharing platform. These moves reflect a growing recognition among politicians of how short-form video platforms with their algorithm-driven, personalised content are becoming central to youth engagement.
With over 30 million active TikTok users in Nigeria, the app is now seen as an influential space for digital political campaigns. This shift raises several questions: Can social media popularity be converted into actual votes at the ballot box? Are politicians genuinely listening to the youth on these platforms, or are they merely leveraging the social media for optics? And, crucially, are Nigeria’s youths translating their online activism into voter turnout? At the 2023 general elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) reported 93.4 million registered voters.
Of these, 39.65 per cent were youths aged between 18 and 34 — a demographic that holds considerable electoral influence. However, the figures also reveal a disconnect: While the youth form the majority of Nigeria’s population, they are not yet the majority of those who vote during elections.
The Peter Obi template in the 2023 elections Peter Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign stands as a case study in social media-driven politics. Relying heavily on online engagement and a strong digital presence, Obi was the clear favourite in several online polls ahead of the election, including one conducted by Bloomberg and another by Anap Foundation. A two-term former governor of Anambra State, Obi contested the 2019 election as the running mate to Atiku Abubakar under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Nigeria’s leading opposition party.
But ahead of the 2023 polls, he resigned from the PDP and joined the LP as its presidential candidate. Despite LP’s status as a smaller party, several online polls projected Obi as the likely winner. He eventually finished third behind the All Progressives Congress (APC’s) Bola Ahmed Tinubu and PDP’s Atiku Abubakar but secured over six million votes, surpassing expectations and positioning himself as a formidable political force.
Many analysts argue that while Obi did not win, his campaign demonstrated the electoral potential of a well-executed social media strategy, crediting the digital space for helping him secure the bulk of his votes. Are politicians listening to influencers or just using them for branding? Dr Bello Galadanchi, a China-based Nigerian skit maker and content creator believes that while politicians are increasingly active on the social media, their approach often prioritises image control over genuine engagement. Galadanchi, better known by his satirical stage name, Dan Bello, argued that for many politicians, the social media is more about crafting a digital persona and steering narratives than responding to public sentiment or driving policy reform.
“The platforms are more often a stage for performance than a space for listening,” he said. He also alleged that some politicians resort to hiring influencers to deliberately spread disinformation. “In the 2023 elections, parties paid influencers to push divisive narratives, indicating a focus on manipulation over dialogue,” he noted.
That said, Galadanchi acknowledged that under pressure, the social media can sometimes compel political responsiveness. “Campaigns like #NotTooYoungToRun led to actual policy shifts. So yes, politicians can listen when they are forced to,” he said.
Eniola Akinkuotu, an Abuja-based journalist and political analyst, agrees that politicians are indeed listening to influencers, citing their frequent use of legal petitions and online appointments as proof. “Yes, they are listening. You won’t see many petitions to the police about cyber-bullying or the arrest of online critics if politicians were ignoring the social media.
They won’t be hiring social media aides or paying influencers to polish their image. Social media serves multiple functions—branding, outreach and narrative control,” Akinkuotu said. A social media influencer and academic, Adnan Mukhtar Tudun-Wada also said the appointment of influencers into government roles is not just symbolic but strategic.
“They follow conversations online. Sometimes, politicians tread carefully because they are aware of how influencers might respond. In fact, governors now appoint influencers specifically to defend their policies online.
That tells you everything,” he said. More politicians now listening, but not all A political analyst and public affairs expert, Dr Kabiru Sa’id Sufi observed that politicians are gradually recognising the influence of social media; some more than others. “A growing number are engaging more directly with users —responding to comments, tagging aides and even fulfilling online requests.
There are those who remain indifferent, no matter the volume or intensity of online discussions,” said Sufi, a senior lecturer at Skyline University, Kano. He said that even politicians without active accounts on platforms like TikTok or Instagram were also impacted by the reach of those platforms through cross-posted content. “The social media is now too influential to be dismissed.
Its growing popularity cannot be discounted and must be given its place of importance. Even on platforms they may not have accounts on, like TikTok and Instagram, you will see that the contents cross and reach all the targeted population,” he added. However, Sufi cautioned that some politicians remain completely unmoved, saying, “There are still a few who simply don’t care what happens online, no matter how loud the chatter gets.
” Does online popularity translate to real votes? When it comes to elections, the million-naira question remains: Can the social media traction turn into actual votes? Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a political scientist at the Bayero University, Kano, doesn’t think so; at least not in most cases. The reason is that votes or elections are cast in the ballot box, and most of the people who talk much on the social media hardly come out to vote. That’s why it doesn’t translate to votes during elections.
Online popularity, according to Dr Sufi, may not necessarily translate to higher votes, may be largely because of the voting pattern. He said, “When it comes to voting, if you see the videos of all the past voting stations, you will find the elderly being more patient, staying on the queue for longer time; you cannot find the milennials with that kind of patience. “Of course they may have more engagements online, but when it comes to real patience of casting votes, that is where the voting pattern does not favour the younger generation.
That is why you will see some politicians very popular online but that does not translate into real votes. If you visit their pages you will see a lot of engagements and trends, but when they contest elections, they don’t get that much number of votes. This does not favour the Gen Zs, in fact, some of them do not even have voter’s cards except for identification purposes, not really for elections.
“That is why sometimes you would see some politicians who may be inactive on the social media or do not have large followership there ending up having more votes in real elections than those with online popularity. “Yes, sometimes it could translate to real votes, considering the fact that now, campaigns have moved from traditional rallies to campaigns on the social media. We have seen politicians relying heavily on online presence and more on social media campaigns than physical rallies,” Dr Sufi added.
He also recognised that digital campaigns are becoming more influential, saying, “Especially for Gen Zs and millennials, social media campaigns can translate to votes, but not always significantly.” Akinkuotu agreed, saying online support is only one piece of a complex puzzle. “The social media alone can’t deliver votes.
You need a comprehensive strategy tailored to your target demographic. For instance, poor communities might respond better to face-to-face interactions or direct welfare gestures like the distribution of food items. “Look at Peter Obi.
He ran a solid online campaign and got over 6 million votes. But his support dropped in areas with low internet penetration. That’s the reality,” he said.
According to him, several variables affect the online-to-ballot box conversion —platform strength, grassroots support, economic capacity and the strength of the opposition. Adnan, however, believes the social media can significantly drive votes, particularly among the youth. He said, “In 2023, Obi and his supporters used the social media effectively.
Gen Zs grew up with these platforms. Millenials may dismiss their power, but politicians today ignore them at their peril.” He also pointed out regional differences, saying, “In the South, where social media penetration is higher, online campaigns have a greater impact.
But in the North, the reach is more limited, so the outcome varies.” Galadanchi echoed this sentiment, noting that while youth-driven online momentum helped Obi make an impact, it wasn’t enough to close the gap created by low voter turnout—only 27 per cent of registered voters cast ballots in 2023. “Online popularity matters, but systemic barriers remain,” he said.
Akinkuotu offered a strategic metaphor thus: “Like warfare, elections require a blend of tools. You need the social media, traditional media, civil society support, student unions and labour groups. Victory depends on a potpourri of techniques.
” Ethics of influence: Promises and accountability One concern raised by analysts is the ethical role influencers play in selling politicians to their followers — often without accountability. Professor Fage said, “The influencers raise people’s awareness; and sometimes, because of the blind followership they have, some of their followers don’t sit down and critically assess the opinion of those who influence their position. They will just blindly follow them.
“Like I said, where it matters is when it comes to actual voting. A good example is before the 2023 elections when public opinion was very high in terms of real support for Obi because most of his followers were youths who used the social media effectively. So people were thinking that Obi would win the presidential election.
But when it came, most of his followers did not vote during the election, that is why he was not able to garner the necessary votes he needed to win the election. Many people don’t critically assess influencers’ positions; they just follow,” the university don added. Regulating online campaigns Fage was sceptical about a possible regulation of online campaigns ahead of 2027, saying, “Freedom of speech and information is protected by the constitution.
Besides, most platforms are foreign-owned. You can’t regulate what you don’t control. “On the social media, everyone is their own editor.
People post what they want. It is nearly impossible to police.” Dr Sufi, however, predicted that with the rise of political content creators and skit makers, some form of regulation might emerge, especially as libel and defamation concerns rise during campaign season.
Akinkuotu believes regulation is already underway. “The Sultan of Sokoto recently labeled the social media a ‘terrorist organisation.’ And Senator Ned Nwoko is pushing a censorship bill.
The National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) just banned Eedris Abdulkareem’s song. Remember when the Buhari government banned Twitter in 2021? Regulation is happening—subtly and overtly.” He, however, warned: “You can’t shut down the social media without backlash.
A better approach is to flood the space with your own narrative and drown the opposition.” More politicians now listening, but not all A political analyst and public affairs expert, Dr Kabiru Sa’id Sufi observed that politicians are gradually recognising the influence of social media; some more than others. “A growing number are engaging more directly with users —responding to comments, tagging aides and even fulfilling online requests.
There are those who remain indifferent, no matter the volume or intensity of online discussions,” said Sufi, a senior lecturer at Skyline University, Kano. He said that even politicians without active accounts on platforms like TikTok or Instagram were also impacted by the reach of those platforms through cross-posted content. “The social media is now too influential to be dismissed.
Its growing popularity cannot be discounted and must be given its place of importance. Even on platforms they may not have accounts on, like TikTok and Instagram, you will see that the contents cross and reach all the targeted population,” he added. However, Sufi cautioned that some politicians remain completely unmoved, saying, “There are still a few who simply don’t care what happens online, no matter how loud the chatter gets.
” Does online popularity translate to real votes? When it comes to elections, the million-naira question remains: Can the social media traction turn into actual votes? Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a political scientist at the Bayero University, Kano, doesn’t think so; at least not in most cases. The reason is that votes or elections are cast in the ballot box, and most of the people who talk much on the social media hardly come out to vote. That’s why it doesn’t translate to votes during elections.
Online popularity, according to Dr Sufi, may not necessarily translate to higher votes, may be largely because of the voting pattern. He said, “When it comes to voting, if you see the videos of all the past voting stations, you will find the elderly being more patient, staying on the queue for longer time; you cannot find the milennials with that kind of patience. “Of course they may have more engagements online, but when it comes to real patience of casting votes, that is where the voting pattern does not favour the younger generation.
That is why you will see some politicians very popular online but that does not translate into real votes. If you visit their pages you will see a lot of engagements and trends, but when they contest elections, they don’t get that much number of votes. This does not favour the Gen Zs, in fact, some of them do not even have voter’s cards except for identification purposes, not really for elections.
“That is why sometimes you would see some politicians who may be inactive on the social media or do not have large followership there ending up having more votes in real elections than those with online popularity. “Yes, sometimes it could translate to real votes, considering the fact that now, campaigns have moved from traditional rallies to campaigns on the social media. We have seen politicians relying heavily on online presence and more on social media campaigns than physical rallies,” Dr Sufi added.
He also recognised that digital campaigns are becoming more influential, saying, “Especially for Gen Zs and millennials, social media campaigns can translate to votes, but not always significantly.” Akinkuotu agreed, saying online support is only one piece of a complex puzzle. “The social media alone can’t deliver votes.
You need a comprehensive strategy tailored to your target demographic. For instance, poor communities might respond better to face-to-face interactions or direct welfare gestures like the distribution of food items. “Look at Peter Obi.
He ran a solid online campaign and got over 6 million votes. But his support dropped in areas with low internet penetration. That’s the reality,” he said.
According to him, several variables affect the online-to-ballot box conversion —platform strength, grassroots support, economic capacity and the strength of the opposition. Adnan, however, believes the social media can significantly drive votes, particularly among the youth. He said, “In 2023, Obi and his supporters used the social media effectively.
Gen Zs grew up with these platforms. Millenials may dismiss their power, but politicians today ignore them at their peril.” He also pointed out regional differences, saying, “In the South, where social media penetration is higher, online campaigns have a greater impact.
But in the North, the reach is more limited, so the outcome varies.” Galadanchi echoed this sentiment, noting that while youth-driven online momentum helped Obi make an impact, it wasn’t enough to close the gap created by low voter turnout—only 27 per cent of registered voters cast ballots in 2023. “Online popularity matters, but systemic barriers remain,” he said.
Akinkuotu offered a strategic metaphor thus: “Like warfare, elections require a blend of tools. You need the social media, traditional media, civil society support, student unions and labour groups. Victory depends on a potpourri of techniques.
” Ethics of influence: Promises and accountability One concern raised by analysts is the ethical role influencers play in selling politicians to their followers — often without accountability. Professor Fage said, “The influencers raise people’s awareness; and sometimes, because of the blind followership they have, some of their followers don’t sit down and critically assess the opinion of those who influence their position. They will just blindly follow them.
“Like I said, where it matters is when it comes to actual voting. A good example is before the 2023 elections when public opinion was very high in terms of real support for Obi because most of his followers were youths who used the social media effectively. So people were thinking that Obi would win the presidential election.
But when it came, most of his followers did not vote during the election, that is why he was not able to garner the necessary votes he needed to win the election. Many people don’t critically assess influencers’ positions; they just follow,” the university don added. Regulating online campaigns Fage was sceptical about a possible regulation of online campaigns ahead of 2027, saying, “Freedom of speech and information is protected by the constitution.
Besides, most platforms are foreign-owned. You can’t regulate what you don’t control. “On the social media, everyone is their own editor.
People post what they want. It is nearly impossible to police.” Dr Sufi, however, predicted that with the rise of political content creators and skit makers, some form of regulation might emerge, especially as libel and defamation concerns rise during campaign season.
Akinkuotu believes regulation is already underway. “The Sultan of Sokoto recently labeled the social media a ‘terrorist organisation.’ And Senator Ned Nwoko is pushing a censorship bill.
The National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) just banned Eedris Abdulkareem’s song. Remember when the Buhari government banned Twitter in 2021? Regulation is happening—subtly and overtly.” He, however, warned: “You can’t shut down the social media without backlash.
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