The events of violence witnessed in Kathmandu have parallels with political disruptions seen recently in Bangladesh last year and Sri Lanka in 2022. In contrast to India's relations with its other neighbours, India has had a strong and special relationship with Nepal that is based on barriers of geography, cultural, economic, and strategic ties and include 1,750 km of borders Turkey and bordering planes of open borders with Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and West Bengal that allow free mobility of people and goods.
India's Security Response and Strategic Interests
While expressing his personal sorrow about the violence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi confessed to feeling "anguish" with the loss of young lives and concluded that he believes the peace, stability, and prosperity of Nepal are essential; he appealed for calm. Modi also held an emergency security meeting to assess the Crisis.
The developments came as a shock to Delhi, especially considering that Oli had resigned only a week before he was due to visit India. Analysts say that instability in Nepal is troubling for India, given Nepal's geostrategic positioning. Nepal borders the Western Theatre Command of China, and routes from Nepal lead directly into the Indo-Gangetic plains.
The unrest burdens the roughly 3.5 million Nepalis who live or work in India — and the true count could be higher. The 1950 treaty allows Nepalis to live and work freely (without a visa or a passport) in India. There are also about 32,000 Gurkha soldiers serving in the Indian army under an enduring agreement, and these people-to-people connections remain paramount to the relationship, as do families, pilgrims, and traders crossing the border daily.
Diplomatic challenges ahead
India and Nepal are closely connected economically, and the bilateral trade between the countries is estimated at $8.5 billion annually. Nepal is particularly reliant on Indian exports, particularly fuel and food. The Himalayan nation is also home to important Hindu religious sites, including the Muktinath temple, which is visited by thousands of Indian pilgrims annually.
Despite this closeness, things have not always been smooth between the two nations. In 2019, India released a map that showed areas in dispute with Nepal, which led to Kathmandu releasing its own version of a map showing disputed regions. More recently, Oli raised alarms with China regarding the Lipulekh Pass being used for trade between India and China, which is within the area which Nepal claims.
As Nepal searches for a new administration that its citizenry would accept, India will likely tread cautiously. The frustrations were demonstrated against all three of the major political parties in Nepal: the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN–UML) led by Oli, the Nepali Congress of Sher Bahadur Deuba and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, aka Prachanda.
The experts note that India must invest in the youth of Nepal by providing more scholarships and jobs. In other words, the inability of young Nepalis to find opportunities within Nepal contributes to instability. Not to mention,27 apart from Nepal's instability, India has its work cut out for itself dealing with its complications with Pakistan, fractious relations with Bangladesh and persistent conflict in Myanmar.
Most observers of the relationship between Nepal and India believe that while India must address its ambitions with those within the global arena, it will need to ratchet down its ambition, reconnect within the region, and solidify and stabilize its own neighbourhood.
