Trump's Tariffs Will Slow Global Growth, OECD Warns

Global economic expansion is likely to slow this year as a result of new trade tariffs that the U.S. maintains under President Donald Trump, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned. The international policy group has lowered its current year global growth estimate over concerns over growing trade barriers.

World growth trimmed back as trade barriers rise
The O.E.C.D. now forecasts that the global economy will grow 2.9 percent in 2025, down from its earlier prediction of 3.1 percent. The group pointed to a "substantial" rise in trade barriers, and in U.S. tariffs in particular, as the main factor behind the weaker outlook.

Alvaro Pereira, the chief economist of the O.E.C.D., warned that "we are basically forecasting a downgrade for almost everybody." Lower growth and fewer jobs would be "felt everywhere in the world, with almost no exception," he added.

Global markets have been jittery since President Trump resumed office and brought the tariffs to bear on several countries. The OECD says this uncertainty is making the economic slowdown worse.

U.S. Growth to Also Slow
The OECD also lowered its estimate for the American economy, forecasting a 1.6 percent expansion this year, down from a previous estimate of 2.2 percent. The report expects that to slow even more going into 2026.

Inflation, meanwhile, continues to be a worry in the US, despite Trump's campaign promises to lower it. Official statistics have it that the US economy shrank by 0.2% at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2025, the first such contraction since 2022.

But Mr. Trump was upbeat on social media, writing, "Because of Tariffs, our Economy is BOOMING!" That, at least, is the view of the OECD as it appears from its analysis.