Modi Alliance Leads in Early Bihar Election Trends

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The first counts in the Bihar assembly election show a pattern, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) in the lead. After a record number of people voted in the state, vote counting began at 08:00 local time (02:30 GMT). Even though these trends give the BJP-JD(U) alliance a clear edge, officials say it will take several hours to confirm the final decision.

 

Record turnout and the context of the election
According to India's Election Commission, the state had polling on November 6 and 11, and the turnout was a record 66.91%, the highest since Bihar's first state elections in 1951. This year's election came after a big change to the voter rolls, which sparked more political debate. The updated list from September had 74.2 million voters on it, but 4.7 million names were removed during the verification process.

Opposition parties were very critical of this move, saying that it removed many legitimate voters, especially Muslims, who could help the ruling alliance. The BJP and the Election Commission both strongly denied the claims. The revision of the voter list is part of a larger effort that is happening in 12 states and federally controlled territories.

Even though there was a lot of controversy, a lot of women voted in Bihar. Women make up almost half of the state's voters, and 71.6% of them voted, which is the highest turnout ever. Both major parties made promises of financial help to appeal to women voters, showing how much more power this group has to shape the outcome of elections.

Political Alliances and Early Predictions
Several exit polls showed that the BJP-JD(U) alliance might win, and early reports of counting seemed to back up those predictions. Within the first two hours of counting, it became clear that the alliance was moving toward a clear majority in the 243-seat assembly. Still, officials stressed that these are just early signs and that they could change as the counting goes on throughout the day.

The BJP and JD(U) are part of the current coalition, and Nitish Kumar is the outgoing chief minister. The coalition of the Congress party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and several smaller parties is their main enemy. The RJD has put Tejashwi Yadav forward as the opposition alliance's candidate for chief minister.

This election also saw the entry of a new political party led by Prashant Kishor, who is known for his work as a political consultant for both national and regional parties, such as the BJP and Congress. His presence added a new twist to the political race that was otherwise well-known.

Bihar is still India's poorest state, even though it has more than 74 million voters. A lot of people move to other parts of the country to find work. The BJP has been part of the ruling coalition in Bihar, but it has not yet been able to form its own government in the state. This makes this election very important for the party.
Leadership in a Tough Spot

This election is also interesting because it could be the last big political battle for two important figures who have shaped Bihar's political story over the past 40 years: Nitish Kumar, the leader of the JD(U), and Lalu Prasad Yadav, the head of the RJD. Both leaders are now in their 70s and reportedly not in good health. They have been rivals and allies at different times throughout their careers. Their power is still very strong in the state's political scene.

Nitish Kumar has been in charge of the state for most of the past twenty years, and he is known as a stable and powerful leader. Lalu Prasad Yadav, a former chief minister, is still a well-known person even though he is out on bail after being found guilty of corruption. The election also marks a change in the political leadership of Bihar, as the opposition has chosen Tejashwi Yadav, the son of the current chief minister, as their main candidate.

The BJP-JD(U) alliance is ahead as the counting goes on, but the full picture won't be clear until the counting is done. Next year, there will be elections in West Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. The results in Bihar could set the tone for future political contests, especially in areas where the BJP is still trying to grow its power.

The next few hours are very important because the early trends could either become the final result or change a lot as more rounds of counting happen.