Close allies are becoming noticeably uncomfortable about what they identify as “manoeuvring” going on to remove the leader from his position. Cabinet ministers discussed as potential successors have been named by Labour MPs, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who each have been described as "experienced cabinet ministers."
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is also said to be in the mix, even backbenchers are speculated including Louise Haigh, the former Transport Secretary.
One minister has said that any move to replace the leadership will be "firmly resisted," referring to the 2021 Hartlepool by-election, which made him consider resigning at the time, because it was concerning enough. He said, "This will not be a 'Hartlepool moment,' just to remind you that only two living Labour leaders have won a general election." He stated emphatically, "It would be bonkers to replace the leader after 17 months."
Growing dread before local elections
Party insiders expect Labour to have poor results across the devolved and local elections due to take place in Scotland, Wales, and England next May. Some Members of Parliament are insisting the party cannot wait that long to get rid of the doubt around the leadership. "It is very easy to say, 'wait for the locals'- that is my activist base going into the gunfire," said one senior MP, who said they didn't want to lose any councillors.
Some felt that momentum would build for a leadership challenge shortly after the Budget, with the implication being if Streeting were to follow through - we could see him as a Prime Minister by Christmas - although Streeting's office promptly denied any ambition to bid and instead said, their focus remains on reducing wait times in history for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 GP's, and rebuilding the NHS.
Reports from Downing Street formally acknowledged burnout, with reports suggesting aides have begun to turn on loyal Cabinet members for no reason at all - including briefings intentionally targeting Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, and Lucy Powell, this did attract ire from inside government. "We are fully aware that we are in a circular firing squad," said one official, "and there is no way out of the Government's current predicament."
Internal Party Morale and Political Uncertainty
Labour peer Maurice Glasman referred to jubilation over the idea of a change in leadership as "just noise", claiming there is currently no candidate who might offer clear direction, or a coherent plan - with the exception of Mahmood, who he stated was a person of "genuine quality" as someone he wanted to support the current PM and the ambition to lead.
Supporters claimed that if the Labour Party were to embark on a contest, it would plunge the party toward chaos, no different than the latter part of the last government, create chaos in international markets and/or could embarrass the PM among "global leaders" - (historically, as with President Trump, for instance).
Despite these warnings, a number of ministers openly shared their frustration - "the public zeitgeist is overwhelmingly negative. Current polling shows Labour continues to enjoy the support of about one-fifth of the electorate.
Labour rules stipulate that to nominate another person to run requires 20% of MPs (81), meaning this could take considerable time and procedures to accomplish, with members deeming the goal too arduous. One cabinet member, when discussing the recent government predicament, stated that if there was any choice at all, it is "not between perfect and failure, it's between Labour and Reform".
The emergence of UK Reform under Nigel Farage have added to internal pressures, making it seem to a number that this is less than a political contest of the ages. There remains some confidence still in senior quarters that this challenge could be met; however rests reservations within Labour. "Labour is not like the Tories, they will not change leader more than once during one parliament," said a new MP, offering a snapshot of the conservative view taking hold throughout the party, slowly rising again.
